But if OP had the money sitting in the bank earning .0000001% interest anyway, it is worth a gamble, even at 100 to 1 odds for the dealer to get an allocation, even in the second year of production. But OP did you get anything in writing if the car will be sold to you at MSRP?
It will definitely not be MSRP, but I do know what the dealer markup will be and it will definitely not be as high as some of the people are speculating. Nor will it be as high as other people paid the last time around for the early cars. They want to keep as many of the cars in the area as possible because they see them as Ford does, halo cars to wow the public.
I agree with you regarding the interest thing. Any investments are risky. I am not buying this car as an investment. Past performance does not guarantee current or future performance. (Although it can help...) When we were discussing the markup amounts, I told the dealer there was no way I was paying some super high 100K or whatever markup based on the last gen car prices. Right now I see a bunch for sale on eBay at 259K+ prices. That's about 100k over MSRP original for the 4 option cars. If I paid 100K over now based on past trends, the dealer would make the "investment" profit for the next 10 years. So we agreed on 99,999.99... just kidding. It actually is in the lower 5 figures, but I understand supply and demand. It would stink if 1200 cars are built this round and I miss out because I wasn't willing to pay what I felt the car was worth.
In the end, I told the dealer that based on what the car is, looks wise and technology, I have a value number that I put on the car. If the car is available to me at that number based on MSRP and/or their markup, then I am ok. I price the things that I buy based on what I like, want, and the value I apply on it. I don't care about other people's opinions. In the end, everything in life is temporary and can disappear in a moment. People, Business, Cars, Houses, Money, etc... My attitude is to enjoy and take care of what I have in those categories while they are with me. When I am done, I will have no regrets.