How many cars will be delivered in total in 2017?


DBK

The Favor Factory™
Staff member
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Jul 30, 2005
14,661
Metro Detroit
Yeah, well with all due respect Kendall, I literally said to myself as I typed it out "I can't wait until Kendall bitches/argues about this response."

Ford communicated to buyers that production had been delayed. As far as I know, all buyers and also non-buyers are aware of this. I'm pretty sure the letter signed by Henry and Dave explaining that production was delayed was posted here somewhere. Around that time, buyers were given new order windows. Now we're at a point where people are routinely being asked to order well in advance of said subsequently communicated order window. Typically, people I talk to like the good Dr. Frank above are not nervous, but are of the "hey, I get it when I get it" mindset.

That said, I can tell you txviper, SPEED DEMON, Paul, FlorIdaho Chris and SteveA are a few people who called me asking what they should do because their communicated order window was a few months out and they were contacted and asked to order immediately because production rate was up. I'm giving you those names so you can contact them and verify this "allegation." A guy posted within the last 72 hours that his delivery was happening way earlier than anticipated. A Canadian member of the forum just ordered his car a full 6 months early to his communicated window on the basis that he was able to order immediately. So you can rest easy knowing that a disparate group of individuals in Texas, New Mexico, Alberta, Michigan and Idaho have all recently ordered or been asked to order early relative to their communicated window.

Speaking of Canadians, you might notice that the sales report says "U.S Sales." People should immediately recognize this report is therefore an incomplete picture, given that they started delivering non-U.S cars the first week of September and began shipping cars outside North America last month. I saw one of the first cars in Saudi Arabia two weeks ago. I don't know the total of international deliveries by country, all I can tell you is I know the total number of MY17 cars produced. They are not 150 cars behind where they planned to be. You can either accept that I have more specific information on this topic than you or not; I don't really care because ultimately the topic is not relevant to you other than giving you another reason to piss and moan about something, hopefully inspiring other people to piss and moan about it. Perhaps that seems a harsh assessment, but you're posting a bunch of hypotheticals about a car you're not buying and how that makes other people who are not buying it nervous. My first blush response to that would be "who gives a shit?" Such discussions are antithetical to the purpose of this website, as they have been for over a decade.

Now I understand, Ford has not communicated a plan to you that satisfactorily assuages your concerns about how they will make up the current unit deficit. Unfortunately, it's my belief that this will remain the status quo and they will not be issuing a communication on how they plan to increase, decrease, or maintain the production rate. I think the previously issued communication about new anticipated order windows will remain as the prima facie document relative to anticipated production timing. They issued no communication as they altered the process at MNV and added additional capacity on certain processes to get to the rate they are at now. I've been to MNV several times and every time the floor has been different from the last, as you would expect during ramp up. One of those times, Dave Pericak and I walked around and discussed the alterations in production that were being made. If people are concerned and are buying a GT they should probably contact the Concierge service and ask for updated timing. If people are concerned and are not buying a GT, they should probably not contact the Concierge and ask for updated timing.

All this said, I agree that maybe they'll stay at the rate they are at today. Maybe they won't. Nobody can predict the future. But at the end of the day, everyone that has an allocation is getting a car regardless of how long it takes. If this information does nothing to alleviate persistent anxiety on the topic, I would recommend seeking the advice of a medical professional.
 

fjpikul

GT Owner
Mark IV Lifetime
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Jan 4, 2006
10,149
Belleville, IL
Despite my honorary Texas citizenship, I did not want to speak for the Texas community. Perhaps this is a California affliction?
 

DBK

The Favor Factory™
Staff member
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Jul 30, 2005
14,661
Metro Detroit
So if my car was build last year, but will be delivered later this month is is in fact a 2017 car as per VIN number??
The only thing that matters is your VIN number. If your VIN is an H it's a 17, if it's a J it's an 18.

 

Jason Watt

NFGT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Oct 14, 2005
1,218
Copenhagen, Denmark
The only thing that matters is your VIN number. If your VIN is an H it's a 17, if it's a J it's an 18.

Cool - Then I have a 2017 car
 

Sinovac

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Jul 18, 2006
5,584
Largo, Florida
Speaking for Midwest guys slated with allocations, we're not nervous.
Not nervous in Florida. Although I do have a mild headache.
 

nota4re

GT Owner
Mark IV Lifetime
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Feb 15, 2006
3,600
I think many people will appreciate your post Dave, including the facts and candor. I have helped to illicit that, then I feel good.
 

Fastway

GT Owner
Dec 15, 2017
39
Calgary, Alberta
I can vouch for the bumped up order window. I had been pushed back into October of 2018 and received the call just before Xmas that if I could order right away, my car would be ready in March! When I asked my concierge how they were able to do this, he just replied that they had ramped up production. Not sure if it's being Canadian ....eh? Either way I'm super exited that I'll be able to drive the car in 2018 and not just look at in hibernation till spring in Alberta--usually around June-haha. As it sits right now I haven't completed the order yet. Waiting on a custom colour sample to be shipped this week for approval--thanks DBK!
 

JWZ

GT Owner
Mark IV Lifetime
Nov 17, 2013
546
West Texas
Exciting times for sure!
 

Specracer

GT Owner
Mark IV Lifetime
Nov 28, 2005
6,078
MA
ZERO confidence issues. Order window was accurate, delivery will be in the range anticipated. Bring it!!
 

Raj Nair

Ford GT Team Alumni
Mar 10, 2015
43
When is a car sold?

Sales reports are important. They can move markets. The numbers are reflected in corporate accounting.

Are sales numbers "incorrect?" Or do they simply reflect a generally accepted method of accounting?

I believe (subject to being wrong) that the monthly auto sales data captures sales to final customers. But what is a sale? A sale is a transfer of title.

A car is made in November, put on a transporter in December, paid for by a customer and delivered to the customer on December 31, with temporary title transferred to the customer on January 2. The car is reported as a sale in January (I think).

So, if I have that right, the sales reports are "correct," but still subject to revision for errors. However, sales reports will never match production reports. Sales reports should be close to delivery numbers though, especially for the GT where I expect very little lag between transport and title transfer to the customer. GTs are not going to sit in dealer inventory.

If you accept sales reports as real numbers (not estimates), then the discrepancy between sales (~80?) and "delivered well over 100" is hard to explain if delivered = sale (i.e., in the hands of the customer).

Of more interest to most of us than this accounting exercise is "they are building 5 a week." This represents the full planned production rate and is, I think, full production capacity. Which means there cannot be a catch up to the planned 1,000 cars in four years.

Assuming 100 GTs produced in year one, the simple math says that production is lagging the plan by 30 weeks (150 cars behind plan divided by five cars per week equals 30 weeks).

This leaves three scenarios:

1. Production can somehow be increased to six cars per week (which would allow about 1,000 cars in four years of production if it took effect immediately).

2. Production will be extended beyond four years to reach 1,000 cars.

3. Production will cease after four years with fewer than 1,000 cars (~850?).

Scenario 3 would be the sad trombone scenario.

I usually refrain from commenting and the Ford Communications team will hate that I’m doing this but I can’t help but make a couple of clarifying comments:

1. You are correct that corporate accounting is very strict but just for everyone’s full understanding - Ford Motor Company sells vehicles to our dealers, therefore the company accounts for vehicle sales revenue when units are released to our dealers. This is often referred to as wholesale. Reported wholesale revenue methodology varies by country, export/import laws, joint ventures, contract manufacturing and shipment method but typically, as far as manufacturer accounting, is concerned, vehicles in transit are accounted for as sold. This would include released vehicles in our logistics systems awaiting shipment. For the GT, there is the added complexity of Multimatic releasing to Ford and Ford then releasing to the dealer. These sales are reported in our corporate financials and are the primary revenue source of Ford Motor Company, and therefore accounting rules are strictly followed.

2. Publicly provided automotive sales reports are based on dealer sales to customers and are primarily self reported by the dealers through various systems. This methodology also varies by country, type of sale, manufacturer, etc. and typically have some sort of lag. The quantity of vehicles and time between a manufacturer selling to the dealer and the dealer showing as sold to a customer is measured in multiple ways (dealer inventory/days to turn/days supply, etc.). These numbers are watched very closely by the industry, media and analysts. There is a whole cottage industry dedicated to this including trying to back into production and sales numbers by talking to suppliers, dealers, counting vehicle registrations, etc. The GT dealer inventory and days to turn is extremely low but all of these factors still apply and the difference between GT’s produced/released/sold is especially influenced by vehicles awaiting or in transit to dealers/customers.

3. The systems producing the data that you are looking at are designed for much higher volumes. They are more than robust for corporate financials, less so sometimes for industry analysis, but definitely not suited to track individual unit production and sale. For reference, in 2016 these systems tracked 6.651 million vehicles just for Ford Motor Company wholesales.

4. The sales reports that you are referring to are U.S. dealer sales only and don’t capture global sales or vehicles produced for company inventory.

Due to all of the above, it is pointless to try to back into any meaningful assessment of overall GT production from these reports.

Therefore, let me answer a couple of questions:

1. Are we behind the original production schedule?
Yes. We don’t release detailed production schedules and the plan was never for 250 units in the first year, but we have acknowledged that we are behind our original schedule and that is why we have notified and sincerely apologized to our affected customers for the delay.

2. Are we building 5 per week now?
Yes.

3. Can we build significantly faster then 5 per week?
No. There will be natural ups and downs any in low volume production program and we will build as fast as we can, but maintaining quality is our first priority.

4. Due to the delay, will we cease production at less than 1000 vehicles?
No.

Those directly affected can call their concierge for more information about their specific order. I hope this answers the high level questions and it is as much detail as I plan to go into. Thanks for your interest and support of the Ford GT!
 
Last edited:

texas mongrel

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
May 3, 2009
1,395
Houston Texas
I’m nervous about the fact that I’m supposed to be nervous about something, but aren’t!
 

AJB

GT
Mark II Lifetime
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Jun 28, 2006
2,658
Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
Thank you Raj.

..and for all of us Ford GT and Ford Motor Company supporters and enthusiasts...you can slice and dice the numbers in various ways and debate until the 'cows come home'...BUT THE KEY POINT IN ALL OF THIS AND POSSIBLY WHAT HAS BOTHERED SOME OF YOUR BRAINS IS CLARIFIED BY RAJ'S POINT NUMBER (FOUR) 4 ABOVE...
......WILL WE CEASE PRODUCTION AT LESS THAN 1000 VEHICLES....NO.

andy (ajb)
 

THamonGT

GT
Mark IV Lifetime
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Thank You Raj for you excellent information of production, delivery and sales of your products. As a present owner of the New 2017 Ford GT the wait is well worth the delivery and ownership. The quality, fit and finish is impeccable and we are very Blessed that Ford Motor Company has kept their plan to build this vehicle in the numbers committed to. Thank You again for your excellent comments that are always welcome by the Ford GT Forum members.
 

GKW05GT

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
May 28, 2011
2,454
Fayetteville, Ga.
Only here can you get this type of information. Thanks Dave and Raj.
 

Howard

GT Owner
Mark IV Lifetime
Apr 26, 2007
984
Florida/North Jersey
Are we sure this guy knows what he's talking about? (LOL)
 

STORMCAT

GT
Mark IV Lifetime
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
May 25, 2006
7,402
Ft. Lauderdale
Only here can you get this type of information. Thanks Dave and Raj.
Here., Here! !:biggrin
 

Sinovac

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Jul 18, 2006
5,584
Largo, Florida
Thank you for that information.
 

Gene Cassone

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Dec 3, 2005
729
way upstate NY
Thanks Raj, Incredible forum!!
 

Fastway

GT Owner
Dec 15, 2017
39
Calgary, Alberta
For me, to be picked for a GT is an incredible honor. If I may quote from Wayne's World --"we're not worthy!" --often comes to my mind. If the concierge had called to say my window had been pushed back another year....I probably would have been okay with it :)
Thanks Raj & Ford
 

Cobrar

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Jun 24, 2006
3,885
Metro Detroit
I usually refrain from commenting and the Ford Communications team will hate that I’m doing this but I can’t help but make a couple of clarifying comments:

1. You are correct that corporate accounting is very strict but just for everyone’s full understanding - Ford Motor Company sells vehicles to our dealers, therefore the company accounts for vehicle sales revenue when units are released to our dealers. This is often referred to as wholesale. Reported wholesale revenue methodology varies by country, export/import laws, joint ventures, contract manufacturing and shipment method but typically, as far as manufacturer accounting, is concerned, vehicles in transit are accounted for as sold. This would include released vehicles in our logistics systems awaiting shipment. For the GT, there is the added complexity of Multimatic releasing to Ford and Ford then releasing to the dealer. These sales are reported in our corporate financials and are the primary revenue source of Ford Motor Company, and therefore accounting rules are strictly followed.

2. Publicly provided automotive sales reports are based on dealer sales to customers and are primarily self reported by the dealers through various systems. This methodology also varies by country, type of sale, manufacturer, etc. and typically have some sort of lag. The quantity of vehicles and time between a manufacturer selling to the dealer and the dealer showing as sold to a customer is measured in multiple ways (dealer inventory/days to turn/days supply, etc.). These numbers are watched very closely by the industry, media and analysts. There is a whole cottage industry dedicated to this including trying to back into production and sales numbers by talking to suppliers, dealers, counting vehicle registrations, etc. The GT dealer inventory and days to turn is extremely low but all of these factors still apply and the difference between GT’s produced/released/sold is especially influenced by vehicles awaiting or in transit to dealers/customers.

3. The systems producing the data that you are looking at are designed for much higher volumes. They are more than robust for corporate financials, less so sometimes for industry analysis, but definitely not suited to track individual unit production and sale. For reference, in 2016 these systems tracked 6.651 million vehicles just for Ford Motor Company wholesales.

4. The sales reports that you are referring to are U.S. dealer sales only and don’t capture global sales or vehicles produced for company inventory.

Due to all of the above, it is pointless to try to back into any meaningful assessment of overall GT production from these reports.

Therefore, let me answer a couple of questions:

1. Are we behind the original production schedule?
Yes. We don’t release detailed production schedules and the plan was never for 250 units in the first year, but we have acknowledged that we are behind our original schedule and that is why we have notified and sincerely apologized to our affected customers for the delay.

2. Are we building 5 per week now?
Yes.

3. Can we build significantly faster then 5 per week?
No. There will be natural ups and downs any in low volume production program and we will build as fast as we can, but maintaining quality is our first priority.

4. Due to the delay, will we cease production at less than 1000 vehicles?
No.

Those directly affected can call their concierge for more information about their specific order. I hope this answers the high level questions and it is as much detail as I plan to go into. Thanks for your interest and support of the Ford GT!
Loved this post Raj. Having been P/L responsible for a couple of auto suppliers, these same types of questions always seemed to be asked by upper management of the respective companies, when attempting to understand/reconcile actual production vs. reported OEM sales numbers.

The disparity/inability to provide a clean reconciliation from published sources drove the financial/accountants crazy. Was so very delighted when the financial guys finally accepted that Automotive News was not the definitive authority on the matter, and we could concentrate analysis on what we could control. ;-))