Ahhh, I love it--a technical discussion! Indy, let me (as they say in the US Senate) extend and amplify the comments of the distinguished gentleman from Indiana.
Pete, as do I! Hopefully all our Forum owners benefit from our technical banter.
Yes, you are correct, the Ford replacements parts are still available--in fact, that's what Rich put on my car.
Smart move in my opinion. For as easy and not costly a bolt swap-out as this operation is, I just do not think it is worth the expense and aggravation of having a failure somewhere out driving around and having the car rendered undriveable. Add to this the opportunity for towing damage when the tow guy shows up having never seen a car like ours or ever tried to tow one back to a service facility. The towing instructions originally shipped with our car when delivered are quite detailed and explicit. Damage will result if the proper procedure is not followed.
As for the number of failures, I was guessing at 50% from the number of comments on the Forum, I could be way off. However, what Jamal said at the R2 in 2007 did not account for the failures since, so his statement based on testing at that time almost certainly is way low. Whatever the real number, so many Forum members have experienced the problem that it's something to be on guard against.
As an engineer, I am sure you are adverse to ever “guessing” at something when you can collect DATA. Engineers love data which is then used to develop a “plan” whether a new design (i.e. program test mules) or a redesign to an existing product due to failure analysis. Jamal is an engineer and was the 2005-2006 FGT Program Manager. Ford recognized in the 05-07 timeframe the unexpected failure rate of the axle bolts was suspiciously high. They developed a test plan to gather data (strain gauge testing of loads, HCF/LCF testing of bolts, evaluation of bolt material properties, etc.) to determine the root cause of WHY these bolts were failing. Knowing this information an appropriate fix could be developed.
What was presented to the owners at the R2 discussion was an overview of the data Ford had collected on the failure mode. No conjecture, guessing or assumptions. True, at the 2007 meeting, the number of failures after that time was not known (how could they, other than to “assume” a failure rate). But it did not matter. The infant mortality issue had been identified by warranty claims, the Ford engineers investigated and determined the root cause of the bolt failures and a “get-well” plan implemented (engineering fix “CA”). The ownership ranks were notified of the recall campaign and our cars got new bolts installed without cost. I and many others participated. If you did not participate for whatever reason, that is your problem. Ford offered (and still does offer the bolts) to make our cars right without cost to us. Hard to criticize anything there.
Of the 4038 FGT units produced I still believe your “guess” of 50% had failures is way too high. Owners experiencing the failure were vocal. Ford listened and fixed the problem. And only recently has this bolt discussion resurfaced likely as ownership transfers occur and new owners are scared into thinking their car might not have been serviced with the new bolt package.
As I noted in another thread on "I Broke my GT" I had the bolts replaced last weekend at John Bailey's gathering by the GTG. The originals were just fine, and it took about 40 ft-lbs to break them loose. Even so, I had them replaced. BUT, if you have significant miles on the car (say 10,000+) at this point, if they haven't failed, they have passed the "infant mortality" part of the failure curve and very likely will never fail. I certainly understand anyone who wants to replace them after reading about all the stories on this Forum, however (that's what I did).
Pete, you joined our owners Forum in 2014. Likely you did not purchase your GT new from Ford. How certain are you that your cars previous owner did not participate in the recall campaign and just forgot to mention this to you. If Rich/Dennis did the swap and said the bolts were OE from Riccaro, I would certainly defer to their assessment as they would definitively know early versus late fix package. If they were original bolts and still maintained their initial preload, you were lucky in my opinion. Ask the GT guys how many half shafts they have opened up with OE bolts still in tact as yours were. I would guess (and I hate doing this) there are very few. But Rich and Dennis have the data.
As for the shaft backing out and not causing damage, I can only imagine that if you're rolling along at highway speed and that part backs out, the other end of the axle is still attached to the rear wheel, which will continue rolling until the car comes to a stop, so I can easily foresee that the axle and CV joint would flop around and bang into other stuff (like the cats). Maybe it won't flop around as much as I expect. But maybe the other guys have been lucky so far.
Again, here you are “imagine” again. I have read with interest since I joined our Forum in 2006 of these failures and talked to the engineers who developed the fix. There have been very few owners who experienced the failure while motoring along. As I recall and it is certainly not scientific, many experienced the failure starting off from a stop or out of the garage. And I vaguely remember a south Florida (?) owner who experienced the failure at low speed (30-45 mph) which left a trail of oil behind the car and made some noise but really did not damage any of the surrounding structures. I just do not recall any sensational failures as you have imagined.
Thanks for the discussion!:thumbsup