SCOTUS overturns the D.C handgun ban
- Thread starter dbk
- Start date
It's a darn good thing they got THAT ONE right.
God knows they screwed up BIG TIME on eminent domain...
God knows they screwed up BIG TIME on eminent domain...
ATM empty
GT Owner
Did you see this yet?
"Gas could fall to $2 if Congress acts, analysts say
Limiting speculation would push prices to fundamental level, lawmakers told
By Rex Nutting & Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:24 p.m. EDT June 23, 2008Comments: 1250WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The price of retail gasoline could fall by half, to around $2 a gallon, within 30 days of passage of a law to limit speculation in energy-futures markets, four energy analysts told Congress on Monday.
Testifying to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management said that the price of oil would quickly drop closer to its marginal cost of around $65 to $75 a barrel, about half the current $135.
Fadel Gheit of Oppenheimer & Co., Edward Krapels of Energy Security Analysis and Roger Diwan of PFC Energy Consultants agreed with Masters' assessment at a hearing on proposed legislation to limit speculation in futures markets.
Krapels said that it wouldn't even take 30 days to drive prices lower, as fund managers quickly liquidated their positions in futures markets.
"Record oil prices are inflated by speculation and not justified by market fundamentals," according to Gheit. "Based on supply and demand fundamentals, crude-oil prices should not be above $60 per barrel."
"Gas could fall to $2 if Congress acts, analysts say
Limiting speculation would push prices to fundamental level, lawmakers told
By Rex Nutting & Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:24 p.m. EDT June 23, 2008Comments: 1250WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The price of retail gasoline could fall by half, to around $2 a gallon, within 30 days of passage of a law to limit speculation in energy-futures markets, four energy analysts told Congress on Monday.
Testifying to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management said that the price of oil would quickly drop closer to its marginal cost of around $65 to $75 a barrel, about half the current $135.
Fadel Gheit of Oppenheimer & Co., Edward Krapels of Energy Security Analysis and Roger Diwan of PFC Energy Consultants agreed with Masters' assessment at a hearing on proposed legislation to limit speculation in futures markets.
Krapels said that it wouldn't even take 30 days to drive prices lower, as fund managers quickly liquidated their positions in futures markets.
"Record oil prices are inflated by speculation and not justified by market fundamentals," according to Gheit. "Based on supply and demand fundamentals, crude-oil prices should not be above $60 per barrel."
Fresno State wins because of betting in Las Vegas?
Gentlemen,
Yes I saw that, but I don't agree. Lawmakers have been acting, and their actions have pushed the price of oil to $140 per barrel. Today's high prices are the direct result of idiotic policies put in place by liberal lawmakers and environmental extremists. 25 years ago the United States of America was extracting 9 million barrels of oil per day from our domestic wells. Today, thanks to the Democrat Party and their appointed reckless and irresponsible judges, we are extracting less than 5 million barrels of oil per day domestically. Our population has more than doubled in that time while our oil production has almost been cut in half. The demand for oil is quite inelastic, in other words, it takes a large increase in price to produce a small reduction in demand. Environmentalists lawsuits have almost completely shut down oil production, oil refineries, nuclear power plants, clean burning coal power plants, and pipeline construction for 30 years while demand for this power has skyrocketed as both our population and prosperity increases. Today, the geniuses on the left tell us we can't drill our way out of this problem. That if we drill today, no additional oil will be produced for 10 years so it's worthless. Using this same moronic logic, we are all idiots for sending our children to school as it will be 16 years or more before they graduate from college and see an increase in their income as a result of all of this effort. One should never start building a new home as it will not result in additional shelter for two years because that's how long it takes to build the house.
The laws of supply and demand are as absolute as the law of gravity. Today's high oil price is not the result of speculators anymore than yesterdays Fresno State's Baseball National Championship win was the result of a lot of people betting on that team in Las Vegas.
Anyway, what's the price of oil have to do with Supreme Court overturning the DC gun ban? While this Supreme Court ruling came down on the right side of "original intent" constitutional law, I am stunned that the ruling was just 5-4. Even after reading the crystal-clear and unambiguous writings of our founders that were distilled into the original bill of rights that clearly show the Second Amendment was meant to be an individual right, not a collectivist state militant right, four of our supreme court justices didn't give a damn. When they don't like the Constitution, they ignore it.
Chip
Gentlemen,
Yes I saw that, but I don't agree. Lawmakers have been acting, and their actions have pushed the price of oil to $140 per barrel. Today's high prices are the direct result of idiotic policies put in place by liberal lawmakers and environmental extremists. 25 years ago the United States of America was extracting 9 million barrels of oil per day from our domestic wells. Today, thanks to the Democrat Party and their appointed reckless and irresponsible judges, we are extracting less than 5 million barrels of oil per day domestically. Our population has more than doubled in that time while our oil production has almost been cut in half. The demand for oil is quite inelastic, in other words, it takes a large increase in price to produce a small reduction in demand. Environmentalists lawsuits have almost completely shut down oil production, oil refineries, nuclear power plants, clean burning coal power plants, and pipeline construction for 30 years while demand for this power has skyrocketed as both our population and prosperity increases. Today, the geniuses on the left tell us we can't drill our way out of this problem. That if we drill today, no additional oil will be produced for 10 years so it's worthless. Using this same moronic logic, we are all idiots for sending our children to school as it will be 16 years or more before they graduate from college and see an increase in their income as a result of all of this effort. One should never start building a new home as it will not result in additional shelter for two years because that's how long it takes to build the house.
The laws of supply and demand are as absolute as the law of gravity. Today's high oil price is not the result of speculators anymore than yesterdays Fresno State's Baseball National Championship win was the result of a lot of people betting on that team in Las Vegas.
Anyway, what's the price of oil have to do with Supreme Court overturning the DC gun ban? While this Supreme Court ruling came down on the right side of "original intent" constitutional law, I am stunned that the ruling was just 5-4. Even after reading the crystal-clear and unambiguous writings of our founders that were distilled into the original bill of rights that clearly show the Second Amendment was meant to be an individual right, not a collectivist state militant right, four of our supreme court justices didn't give a damn. When they don't like the Constitution, they ignore it.
Chip
ATM empty
GT Owner
Chip
I didn't mean to turn up the heat in AZ - just trying to keep an eye on the people in Washington. Jim
I didn't mean to turn up the heat in AZ - just trying to keep an eye on the people in Washington. Jim
S592R
GT Owner
- Dec 3, 2006
- 2,800
Thank GOD ... now I can carry my pistol with my assault rifle in DC ... :wink
On the gas/oil front (hi-jack opportunity) ... I agree with getting the speculators out of the markets. Its just too important of a commodity and abuse kills the economy ...
I have no issue with profit but how many middlemen do we want in a to market transaction? Especially if they never have their own money at risk and never take the stuff into their hands.
I also agree with Chip in getting more energy produced here in the US ... don't care if its oil, alcohol, nuke .. hydro or whatever ... we need to be more independent ... period.
But for the short-term getting the speculators out of the markets is a good and necessary start. Bought the BMW in November .. first tank was 21.00 filled it today (same amount) was 57.88. Seven months almost to the day! Same station, same octane.... something is not right there ....
On the gas/oil front (hi-jack opportunity) ... I agree with getting the speculators out of the markets. Its just too important of a commodity and abuse kills the economy ...
I have no issue with profit but how many middlemen do we want in a to market transaction? Especially if they never have their own money at risk and never take the stuff into their hands.
I also agree with Chip in getting more energy produced here in the US ... don't care if its oil, alcohol, nuke .. hydro or whatever ... we need to be more independent ... period.
But for the short-term getting the speculators out of the markets is a good and necessary start. Bought the BMW in November .. first tank was 21.00 filled it today (same amount) was 57.88. Seven months almost to the day! Same station, same octane.... something is not right there ....
Hey, I'm taking a deep breath.
Jim,
My apologies if my post sounded intolerant or harsh, that was not my intent. I am a Chevron dealer in the Phoenix area and I suppose that, like a lot of other business people right now, my frustration level with both my state and federal government is very high. I think I'd be happier if I read a lot less and drank a lot more. :cheers
Arizona does not contain one single refinery. The entire Phoenix metropolitan area is dependent upon three fuel pipelines (two from California and one from Texas) that aren't much bigger around than a garden hose. All three of them are old and outdated. The one coming from Texas burst two years ago, eliminating one third of the Phoenix areas gasoline, diesel, jet fuel supply for most of a month, shutting down my store for days on end, and bringing the Valley of the Sun to its knees as people lined up for hours to buy gas when it was available. Kinder-Morgan has been trying for nearly a decade to secure permits to build a new modern pipeline. No dice. Even after that disastrous event two years ago, it has still been impossible to secure all necessary permits to replace that obsolete pipeline. Years ago our domestic refineries hit 100% of capacity and now, in addition to importing 75% of our crude oil, we must import 14% of the refined gasoline used in the United States every day. There is a genuine culprit for today's outrageous gasoline prices. When prices are high like they are today, business people like me see an opportunity. If I could build a refinery, or a power plant, or a pipeline, I could make a fortune while adding to our energy supplies, and, combined with other investors, bring prices down. But no matter how much money, or expertise, or experience, one is able to throw the process, securing permits for those projects are impossible in the United States today. When government prevents the marketplace from working, government is the culprit responsible for shortages and high prices. Today's gasoline prices are killing my business and a whole bunch of others as well. :ack
Still, that's no excuse for me to sound harsh. 40 years from now I'll be dead so I better lighten up and enjoy what's going right instead of being so frustrated about what's going wrong. I look forward to seeing you at the Rally Jim.
Chip
Jim,
My apologies if my post sounded intolerant or harsh, that was not my intent. I am a Chevron dealer in the Phoenix area and I suppose that, like a lot of other business people right now, my frustration level with both my state and federal government is very high. I think I'd be happier if I read a lot less and drank a lot more. :cheers
Arizona does not contain one single refinery. The entire Phoenix metropolitan area is dependent upon three fuel pipelines (two from California and one from Texas) that aren't much bigger around than a garden hose. All three of them are old and outdated. The one coming from Texas burst two years ago, eliminating one third of the Phoenix areas gasoline, diesel, jet fuel supply for most of a month, shutting down my store for days on end, and bringing the Valley of the Sun to its knees as people lined up for hours to buy gas when it was available. Kinder-Morgan has been trying for nearly a decade to secure permits to build a new modern pipeline. No dice. Even after that disastrous event two years ago, it has still been impossible to secure all necessary permits to replace that obsolete pipeline. Years ago our domestic refineries hit 100% of capacity and now, in addition to importing 75% of our crude oil, we must import 14% of the refined gasoline used in the United States every day. There is a genuine culprit for today's outrageous gasoline prices. When prices are high like they are today, business people like me see an opportunity. If I could build a refinery, or a power plant, or a pipeline, I could make a fortune while adding to our energy supplies, and, combined with other investors, bring prices down. But no matter how much money, or expertise, or experience, one is able to throw the process, securing permits for those projects are impossible in the United States today. When government prevents the marketplace from working, government is the culprit responsible for shortages and high prices. Today's gasoline prices are killing my business and a whole bunch of others as well. :ack
Still, that's no excuse for me to sound harsh. 40 years from now I'll be dead so I better lighten up and enjoy what's going right instead of being so frustrated about what's going wrong. I look forward to seeing you at the Rally Jim.
Chip
dbtgt
One lucky SOB to own a GT
A free market is a free market. If it doesn't go your way it isn't necessarily "not right". There is a winner and a loser on every side of every trade. Speculators live and die by their own sword every day. Here's a great idea - let's just institute price controls - that will complement our government's other failed policies just fine! JMHO! :cheers
S592R
GT Owner
- Dec 3, 2006
- 2,800
I agree ...however, remember the stock market pre-1929? That was when a majority of people bought stocks on margin and I mean huge leverage. Less than ten percent cash in was the average then the market contracted and all that "virtual wealth" contracted suddenly plunging the country into a "economic perfect storm". When combined with the weather issues of the day our society graphically changed. Now look at this trend of speculation today ... its very similar. Leveraging on credit "hard" or "intangible" assets to gain marginal cash gains at the detriment of the end-user. When this end user is so vast and the asset being "held" is a economic driver stopgap measures need to put in place just as in post 1929 stock market. THe major point I was trying to make in my last post is this if you have no intent of taking delivery of a commodity then stay out of it. Commodities and stocks are not similar .... part ownership of a company that provides products, goods, services and jobs (stocks) is a positive investment. Hiking up the cost of goods for individual gain is parasitic and pulls against the economy and abusive of this needs to be changed. Commodities use to provide immediate liquidity for the producer and aided the market when smaller segment investors (usually refiners, production related) but when multi-billion dollar hedge funds drop money into an invest on a broad scale they become market movers instead of market enablers. This is the 100 of own or 1 of 100 analogy in reverse ..... Wise investments always enable a sustainable business, unwise and unethical investments look to cripple or short an entire segment to the detriment of the whole.
dbtgt
One lucky SOB to own a GT
Do you happen to know what percentage of the last years run up in the price of oil (and natural gas) is due to 'speculators' and how much is attributable to market forces? I would like to know.
dbtgt
One lucky SOB to own a GT
S592R
GT Owner
- Dec 3, 2006
- 2,800
"The dollar also slipped against key currencies, as U.S. data showed sluggish economic growth and pointed to a struggling labor market. Oil is priced in U.S. dollars, and some investors buy oil contracts to protect the value of their assets against accelerating inflation when the dollar falls." quote from MSNBC.com article
I have seen this line or one very similar about 23 times since November 07. Would you call that a market item or a speculator item? I would call a market item as a genuine investment opportunity for long term growth into an area of interest strategically aligned to one's longterm investment strategy or simply put an area of expertise. I would call speculation ... grabbing an opportunity to gain profit or "hedge" a gain. Investments use to be considered long term in the years category. Now its measured in days.... that is speculation.
Market demand ... need more of an item ie usage drastically increases. If you look at overall demand for fuel on a world wide basis it is less than double digit. I would call that a manageable increase calling for the need in long term capital investment in two areas ... production AND conservation since we are talking about a fixed and finite resource. I do not think that over speculation in a finite resource causes anything but hardship overall. Now if investors looked at rational growth in emerging technologies instead of the immediate return on Investment then we would be driving good quality cars that are capable of 30-50 mpg and good performance but instead we looked at quick profits measured in quarters and mismanagement due to the desire to retire early with huge compensation.
I am not a liberal and tend to be very conservative. However, long term rational investment is what is best for the continued success of our country. I have seen poverty and starving children first hand in my early adulthood ... I don't want to see it here in the US or anywhere else for that matter. Rational rules and tax abatements encouraging long term investment of capital into resources, development of technologies and an energy policy is what is needed here ... not a debate over capitalism and a total free market economy. We do not live in one .. nor have we ever lived in one ... it is solely an illusion. A limited amount of controls put in place to defend "the common good" is a rational measure when a single fund can weigh in enough capital through leveraging to singularly increase the overall cost of living for every person in the USA. Remember that several funds and a few individuals have enough wealth to run a Nimitz class carrier battlegroup for more than a month individually now look at what they can do collectively. Now put that in to scope ....
Now back to the first quote. Why buy oil? because everyone needs it. Why not cross currency instead ... the pound is as solid as a rock and the euro is up also. Speculation.... pure and simple. When a gallon of gas price changes 12 times when it has not moved an inch and no one has touched it so it has not incurred an single COGS increase. Speculation.
A widget costs X to produce. If you keep making widgets at X ... the cost does not go up. If you place 25 middle men each charging 10 cents a piece for their profit how much does the retail cost of your widget cost?
If you say "well we might not be able to make widgets for much longer" but your cost of making a widget is still X then how much does your widget cost? Until the media and the speculators get in there then its doomsday on the widgets!!! I agree with the Saudis on this one. and its one of the few times that I ever had. When a producer says the cost of their goods should be 65.00 a barrel. (read news sites out of Saudi) then why is it 142.00 today? I think I have :dead: but my point is valid...
dbtgt
One lucky SOB to own a GT
S592R
GT Owner
- Dec 3, 2006
- 2,800
Here's the answer:
You may be driving up the price of oil
Workers with retirement savings could affect energy costs
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WASHINGTON - All those speculators getting the blame for driving up the price of oil these days — just who are they? For part of the answer, look in the mirror.
The retirement savings of workers across the country, entrusted to pension fund managers, are being plowed into one of the few investments that has delivered phenomenal returns in recent years.
For decades, futures contracts were mostly traded by commodity producers and the people who used the actual products, such as crude oil, corn and soybeans. Agreeing to a price today for a commodity to be delivered in, say, two months is a way to smooth out price fluctuations for those supplies.
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But large investors faced with the threat of inflation have increasingly used them as protection against the falling dollar. That includes pension funds, along with investment banks, mutual funds and private hedge funds.
Research firm Ennis Knupp and Associates says $139 billion had been funneled into energy commodites, primarily crude oil, by the end of March — and it estimates more than half of that is from retirement money.
The investments have paid off. The Standard & Poor's GSCI index, which tracks a basket of commodities, is up 19 percent in the past five years, compared with just 9 percent for the S&P 500 stock index.
Join the discussion on Newsvine
What are your thoughts about securing your retirement savings by investing in oil?
The risk is that if the remarkable run in oil and other futures markets reverses course, billions of dollars of retirement benefits could be wiped out.
"A pension fund is supposed to be investing money in secure, stable investments for the benefit of the people whose money they are investing," said Dan Lippe, an energy analyst at Houston-based Petral Consulting Inc.
"When we hit that wall and things start falling," he said, "they will fall very fast, and the pension funds that invested in commodities will see a tremendous loss of value."
The retirement system for public employees in California, the largest in the nation, has $1.3 billion invested in commodities. Most of it tracks the S&P commodity index.
That's still just one-half of 1 percent of the fund's total $240 billion in assets, said Michael Schlachter, who advises the California pension fund. He said a collapse in oil or other commodity prices would have little effect on retirees.
Still, a growing chorus of experts is convinced retirement investments are enough to distort prices.
Billionaire George Soros, the airline industry and the International Monetary Fund are all pressuring Congress to curb speculation by large investors. Democrats in Congress say they hope to vote on restrictions by August.
"Your pension fund manager may be using your retirement money to drive up the price of oil," said Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., at a hearing earlier this week on speculation in commodities.
"What would happen if pension fund managers decided to increase their commodity investment by another 20-fold?" he asked.
Speculators put money into commodity markets simply to make money on their investments — unlike commercial investors, who are actually buying or selling orders for physical goods.
Energy analysts say it's unclear what effect speculators have had on oil prices, which climbed briefly to a new record above $142 on Friday before falling back.
But Stupak and other lawmakers have already dashed off more than a dozen proposals to rein in commodity trading, including limiting how many contracts speculators can hold and closing loopholes that allow them to skirt regulations.
Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., proposed banning pension funds and other large investors from commodities altogether. He dropped the idea after vigorous opposition by an association of public and private pension funds.
Schlachter, who is also managing director for investment consulting firm Wilshire Associates, called the idea "horrendously bad." He said pension funds should not be compared to Wall Street speculators, who assume huge risks every day to maximize returns.
"The pension plans we work with are using commodities only as a long-term hedge against inflation," he said.
Unlike the stock market, where there are a limited number of shares for each company, futures markets have no limits on contracts available. As long as a buyer can find a seller for each contract, investment opportunities are virtually unlimited.
Critics say retirement funds that accumulate contracts are artificially driving up commodity prices. In the case of oil, that means higher gas prices and more expensive food and other goods.
"If they're going to be in the futures market they need to trade rather than take this buy and hold strategy," said Michael Masters, portfolio manager of hedge fund Masters Capital Management. "That is the worst possible thing for the futures market."
Masters and other experts told members of Congress this week that eliminating excessive speculation could drive oil prices down to about $65 a barrel, less than half the current price.
Retirement funds have suffered at the hands of the market before. In 2002, when the stock market swooned after the dot-com crash and 9/11, retirement assets dropped $7 billion, losing 8 percent of their value.
Oh BTW ... The wall street journal two weeks ago estimated it was approximately 70%.
Now back to guns .... :biggrin
Thank GOD the second amendment got a "boost" instead of the normal whack. Now I don't have to worry about burying my rifles. :wink
dbtgt
One lucky SOB to own a GT
That's a lot of opinion and no facts.
I'll believe these guys:
“Energy analysts say it's unclear what effect speculators have had on oil prices, which climbed briefly to a new record above $142 on Friday before falling back.”
Before these guys:
“But Stupak and other lawmakers have already dashed off more than a dozen proposals to rein in commodity trading, including limiting how many contracts speculators can hold and closing loopholes that allow them to skirt regulations.”
“Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., proposed banning pension funds and other large investors from commodities altogether. He dropped the idea after vigorous opposition by an association of public and private pension funds.”
Any day!
Enough - let's agree to disagree - this is the GT Forum after all!
Over and Out! :cheers
I'll believe these guys:
“Energy analysts say it's unclear what effect speculators have had on oil prices, which climbed briefly to a new record above $142 on Friday before falling back.”
Before these guys:
“But Stupak and other lawmakers have already dashed off more than a dozen proposals to rein in commodity trading, including limiting how many contracts speculators can hold and closing loopholes that allow them to skirt regulations.”
“Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., proposed banning pension funds and other large investors from commodities altogether. He dropped the idea after vigorous opposition by an association of public and private pension funds.”
Any day!
Enough - let's agree to disagree - this is the GT Forum after all!
Over and Out! :cheers
Last edited:
S592R
GT Owner
- Dec 3, 2006
- 2,800
I agree to disagree ... but you missed this "Research firm Ennis Knupp and Associates says $139 billion had been funneled into energy commodites, primarily crude oil, by the end of March — and it estimates more than half of that is from retirement money." Now please explain to me how retirement funds are "market driven" instead of "speculators"?
I don't hear anyone at the pump saying "please may I pay $6. a gallon for 87 octane?" uhhhh no.
History will prove one of us right. At that time the winner buys the other a drink or two after we put a few miles on the GTs. Deal?
dbtgt
One lucky SOB to own a GT
But there is always 2 sides to every trade - a seller and a buyer. The market is very efficient in that way - much more efficient than our government which never balances the equation!
Deal
Last edited:
AtomicGT
GT Owner
Uh, to hijack th' hijack - dat dere is krummy radio proceedure talk!
What yuh jus' done said thar, in effect, was, "Over to you...but, I'm not listening." (...Or was dat 'zactly yur meanin'! :rofl :cheers)
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