I hope he is way off base...


Awsum GT

GT Owner '18
Mark IV Lifetime
Sep 17, 2005
3,937
Carmel and Central California
I can't believe this is really going to happen anytime soon...

http://www.autonews.com/article/201...1109944/bob-lutz:-kiss-the-good-times-goodbye
 

BlackICE

GT Owner
Nov 2, 2005
1,415
SF Bay Area in California
I agree with the Lulz's view of the future of personal transportation. The question isn't if it is going to happen, but when is it going to happen. First metropolitan areas will mandate this through legislation and slowly it will spread. However I don't see rapid adoption in area of low population density like Montana, North Dakota, Alaska... where such a system doesn't make economic sense.

Drive them while you can!
 

roketman

GT Owner
Mark IV Lifetime
Oct 24, 2005
7,136
ma.
I hope not in my lifetime!
 

Vince H

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Jul 23, 2012
2,385
Southern California
I hope not in my lifetime!
Exactly.

Vince H
 

GTdrummer

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Mar 13, 2010
2,074
Richmond Virginia
I have been in contact with him about this for some time. Bob is not backing off and he has a good track record of being right.
 

ChipBeck

GT Owner
Staff member
Mark IV Lifetime
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Feb 13, 2006
5,622
Scottsdale, Arizona
Gentlemen,

Sitting in my desk are several one frame cartoons I really like. One of them shows a dog in a business suit sitting in a job interview. After being asked by the interviewer, “Where do you see yourself 20 years from now?” the dog sadly responds, “I don’t really want to think about that”.

As my future lifespan grows shorter I am more and more joyful that I’m alive today in the waning years of the sovereign individual. I fly my own plane, pilot my own boat, drive my own cars, and travel wherever and whenever I please, often with my personal firearms to hunt in a faroff land. My grandson will not enjoy nearly as many freedoms as I have. Time marches on. There are many things on the horizon that I won’t miss one bit if I fail to live that long.

Chip
 
Last edited:

twobjshelbys

GT Owner
Jul 26, 2010
5,428
Las Vegas, NV
Inevitable, as technology advances to deal with congestion in high density areas and public transportaion can't keep up. His prediction will be what happens in high density areas and will become the new public transportation.

Gonna be hard to convince places like Alliance Nebraska to sign up.
 

Empty Pockets

ex-GT Owner
Mark IV Lifetime
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Oct 18, 2006
1,332
Washington State
"On the freeway, it will merge seamlessly into a stream of other modules traveling at 120, 150 mph..."

...until it doesn't.


"Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap"

I was unaware one's personal vehicles were / could be subject to "eminent domain"...
 

BlackICE

GT Owner
Nov 2, 2005
1,415
SF Bay Area in California
"On the freeway, it will merge seamlessly into a stream of other modules traveling at 120, 150 mph..."

...until it doesn't.


"Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap"

I was unaware one's personal vehicles were / could be subject to "eminent domain"...
the government won't confiscate your cars parked in the garage. They just won't allow on the public roadways.
 

PeteK

GT Owner
Apr 18, 2014
1,431
Kalama, Free part of WA State
Here's a counter view by McKinsey. They estimate AT LEAST 10 years away due to several factors.

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries...-technology-when-will-the-robots-hit-the-road
 

w.a.nelson

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Feb 29, 2008
947
Asbury, NJ and Bourne, MA
Gentlemen,

Sitting in my desk are several one frame cartoons I really like. One of them shows a dog in a business suit sitting in a job interview. After being asked by the interviewer, “Where do you see yourself 20 years from now?” the dog sadly responds, “I don’t really want to think about that”.

As my future lifespan grows shorter I am more and more joyful that I’m alive today in the waning years of the sovereign individual. I fly my own plane, pilot my own boat, drive my own cars, and travel wherever and whenever I please, often with my personal firearms to hunt in a faroff land. My grandson will not enjoy nearly as many freedoms as I have. Time marches on. There are many things on the horizon that I won’t miss one bit if I fail to live that long.

Chip
Chip,

Well said, as always.

Truly our Renaissance man!
 

texas mongrel

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
May 3, 2009
1,542
Houston Texas
We took an Uber autonomous vehicle a couple of months ago in Pittsburgh, it was a Volvo SUV. During our fifteen minute ride the driver had to intervene five times, and once the car slammed its brakes on for no apparent reason. The two tech guys explained that they have to drive a route five or six times minimum before the car “learned” its landscape. Multiply that process over every road in America and I think I’ll be long dead before we have totally autonomus transportation. Sure, urban centres might get it within, say, a decade, but the fun roads will always be ours!
 

Beach-GT

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
May 8, 2006
887
Seminole Florida
If you went to sleep 200 years ago and woke up today imagine what it would be like. So if you go to sleep today and wake up in 50 years it will probably be the same experience.
 

junior

GT Owner
Mar 9, 2007
1,121
So Cal
I am moving to Ittoqqortoormiit, Greenland :biggrin
 

GTMD

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Jan 4, 2011
815
NorCal
This is disturbing to think about. I, too, hope I'm not around when this happens.

If our timing is wrong, I think we should pool our resources and purchase a large amount of real estate that we can build roads on. An island, part of a desert...it doesn't matter.
 

Triheart7

GT Owner
Mark IV Lifetime
Apr 3, 2007
2,541
Northern California
If this comes around, probably I will have some form of dementia. Then I won't know what's changed and won't care. Boy is that depressing, I like what Chip said better.
 

2112

Blue/white 06'
Mark II Lifetime
I can read the frustration in Lutz's piece. He is a car guy and has devoted most of his life towards the "fun" segment of the automobile industry.

I think he is spot-on. I share his frustration. And being a life-long car guy, I lament the impending death of the world of freedom the car has brought us. (Yes, Chip said it much better).

As I converse with other car guys, I am surprised how many believe, because they love cars too, that the future Lutz predicts just can't come true. The thing is, especially in large Metro areas, a majority of the population expects the government to solve this problem. The problem of a infrastructure system designed to accommodate a country of 170 million people wallow under the weight of nearly twice that many people. Not even going to address the Climate change issue but it is also a huge factor.

This time around, the government can't build it's way out of the problem. Even if it wanted to, the politics of today would never allow it. It will be so much easier, and from the government's point of view, liberating, to allow the privatized fleets, as Lutz described, assume responsibility......and control of most if not all phases of personal transportation. All the government will have to do, as Clinton said, is legislate cars off the highways. Not hard to do now, and politically, more doable every day.
 

2112

Blue/white 06'
Mark II Lifetime
As I read thru the comments, I see quite a few commentators who see the world Lutz described as positive.

The that would mirror what I hear/read here in the Seattle metro area.
 

Fubar

Totally ****** Up
Mark II Lifetime
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Aug 2, 2006
3,979
Dallas, TX
Not to worry Gentlemen, new laws on the books, as of September 1st, 2017, that prevent a person from being arrested for misdemeanor offenses, those laws also add that courts cannot issues warrants if a person does not appear for their hearings on the aforementioned misdemeanor. So you will be able to drive your cars wherever and whenever you like, while it may not be legal, there is no punishment. You will be able to giggle at the officer as he issues you the citation for “driving a car” and then feel free to use the ticket paper to roll a doobie (less than 2oz please) in the presence of an officer, without any fear of arrest. The future... what a world?
 

BlackICE

GT Owner
Nov 2, 2005
1,415
SF Bay Area in California
Not to worry Gentlemen, new laws on the books, as of September 1st, 2017, that prevent a person from being arrested for misdemeanor offenses, those laws also add that courts cannot issues warrants if a person does not appear for their hearings on the aforementioned misdemeanor. So you will be able to drive your cars wherever and whenever you like, while it may not be legal, there is no punishment. You will be able to giggle at the officer as he issues you the citation for “driving a car” and then feel free to use the ticket paper to roll a doobie (less than 2oz please) in the presence of an officer, without any fear of arrest. The future... what a world?
Only if you're not a citizen.