Pegging the Trends of Collectibility


Well lets see, if they built 4000 of them and 3800 get totaled in the next months the remaining cars will surge in value. Other than that expect 30% depreciation for the next 5 years and then return to window and then slowly move up at the rate of inflation.

They are toys, not investments. sorry to be so blunt.
 
I always anticipated that the GT would drop to the point at which it became tempting to those wanting another car.

I see that price point as being in the $80-90k range, perhaps less. It was not a factor in my purchase.

If history is any indication, people want a new car with a new warranty. If they cannot have that because the car is no longer available, then they want a pristine stock car with almost no mileage. As you take away those factors, willingness of the consumer wanes. Take as an example those who bought a Viper SRT-10 and then dropped $30k into Motons, Quaife and Paxton...Corsa, 3.55, HREs etc. They may well have put $110k+ into a car which would be more difficult to e-bay than a stock car.

Why is that? People like new things. I call it the "virginity concept." They do not want anyone there before, no evidence of anyone there before, no wear and tear by virtue of anyone there before...and if they cannot get it new...then they want to delude themselves that it is barely used.

In 2009, with all the car choices available at that time...would someone want to pay $100k for the GT?

My belief is that they would not. I suggest that either you do not worry about such things because you have great financial strength or do not worry about it because no matter what...you are forever pleased with this purchase.

- doc
 
I'll tell you why.

eshrink said:
In 2009, with all the car choices available at that time...would someone want to pay $100k for the GT?
- doc
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With all of the great cars produced in the last 40 years why would anybody pay $750,000 for a 289 AC Cobra? $2,000,000.00 for a Hemi 'Cuda. $450,000.00 for a Mustang GT350. Newer cars exist that are faster, handle better, built better, more comfortable. There are a thousand AC Cobras. Probably over a thousand Hemi Dodge/Plymouth cars. God knows how many Shelby Mustangs. Consider the U.S. population in 1965 and those cars were relatively more common then than the GT is today.

Some cars represent high water marks for an entire decade and remind people of their younger days and perhaps what they missed out on during that youth. When that high water mark is produced for just a short time it's status (myth?) grows in time (think Cobra, Boss 429, Ford GT). If the car continues to be produced for a long time and is always available this does not happen (think Viper and Corvette). Like girls, we always want what we can't get.

Think about all the great cars built during the last ten years. In your opinion, what's 'THE MOST DESIRABLE AMERICAN BUILT CAR PRODUCED DURING THE LAST DECADE'?? Prowler? Viper? Corvette? GT500? The answer is obvious gentlemen. The Ford GT may not appreciate but it will still outperform every other American car built during the last decade for the next 40 years. Tell me where I'm wrong?

Chip
 
Actually it was $4 mil for a Hemi cuda, and prices appear to emerge from a nuclear group of investors/resellers. As those people pass into the great beyond, the next generation emerges. Will they want a `57 fuelie? Will they want the fugly hemi Belvedere?

I suspect that the demand for original unmolested and ground up rotisserie restored cars will continue, but I anticipate that we shall see the next generations being more interested in mint early Vipers etc.

People want things from their generation, things from their father's generation or things that they know their father's always wanted.

I do not think we should hang our hats on investment potential or even the current standard of blinding performance. Just enjoy the car, add another as technology changes.

When we talk about GT investment potential or enduring performance standard, it almost sounds as though we are finding justification for our love affair with the car...we should just enjoy the thing.

-doc
 
eshrink said:
...we should just enjoy the thing.

-doc
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AGREED!!
 
eshrink said:
When we talk about GT investment potential or enduring performance standard, it almost sounds as though we are finding justification for our love affair with the car...we should just enjoy the thing.
-doc
Click to expand...

Hey doc,

Not so here. I would buy a GT even if it was guaranteed to depreciate to zero and stay there. That's pretty much how it is for me anyway as there is no resale value if you don't sell. Unless my financial world goes to hell that's not gonna happen. This is just an academic exercise attempting to predict the future based upon today's circumstances. Who has the best model and data? Based upon mine the Ford GT is the AC Cobra of our time and that prediction is worth every penny you paid for it. :biggrin That said, I'm gonna go drive! :banana

Chip
 
A neighbor (car collector) stopped me today and said "Your GT-40 (sic) is just amazing...it is going to be worth a fortune."

I reassured him that I like the car very much but that its collectibility cannot be the criteria.

He could not be dissuaded. He is convinced that it is the best car he has ever seen...then asked the inevitable Atlanta question:

"Gee where do you find space to drive it."

I asked him about our mutual neighbor with a Gallardo and whether he liked it a bit better.

He replied: "It is not American, and it sounds like a hornet with hemmoroids."

An image that is hard to dismiss.

- doc
 
You'll have to bear with me, as I work with engineers... As we contemplate the production number of 4000, and whether that is a factor in determining the future value of our GT's, it made me think about another Ford-oriented car that was actually built in greater numbers over a longer period, the De Tomaso Pantera. From 1971 until 1974, the production reached 5629. As many of us remember, they were originally listed for around $10,295. In 1984 good examples were in the $12 to $15K range, with excellent exaample in the $15 to $25K range. Although they initially dropped in value, they quickly climbed to a value exceeding their initial cost. Strangely, the 5 year projection for the cars in 1984 was for no change in value. Although I felt that was a strange projection due to their value in 1984, the projection was actually somewhat correct. Excellent examples, today, are certainly valued at more than $25k, but given the price of new cars, they are still an affordable exotic. If nothing else, it would be interesting to plot GT values according to the same scale. Although I'm never selling mine, I have a feeling that our car's values will initially drop, but then begin an increase in value. And with no rust problems (yep, I had a Pantera), I project our car's values will remain strong. So, in my estimation, 4000 cars does not establish the long-term value on an exotic like out GT. And if current reactions to our cars is any indication, GT's will be prized for years to come. Now, where was that graph paper? :biggrin
 
I often wonder if American cars may, in fact, cease to exist in the future. The work ethic, the motivation, the entitlement...just very different from the success formula of the Asians.

I remember the times when dealer showrooms had a count down until the new car release. People eagerly awaited the 1956 Bel Air or the 1962 Impala.

Today...they wonder if the new Camry is better than the new Accord.

Was this inflicted or did we create this?

Are our GTs valuable because they represent the strength of the American car market...or are they valuable because they remind us of a time...when Americans built cars?

- doc
 
In my opinion....

Barrett-Jackson is bringing what I call smart-stupid money: The buyer has to be smart enough to HAVE money, and stupid enough to spend it on a special car (or boat, or house, or hooker, or whatever). I optioned my incoming GT with the painted calipers ONLY. It's Tungsten with no stripes (and delete side stripes) to be a "sleeper." I had a '69 Z/28 with a '70 LS6 454/450 crate motor, painted all "gunmetal gray" (imagine that), no stripes, factory mufflers and resonators, steel Rally wheels with center caps and no trim rings. The cops left me alone until I was GONE....

So, I'll have a Stealth GT, no bling, no flash, but a great daily driver; and the most I can lose on the value is about $150,000.

Smart-Stupid....
 
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Really? And where did you find a "Titanium" car?
 
1827:

There is an entire education in just watching the bidders and onlookers at Barrett Jackson.

I have a friend who went out there for this year's auction and commented "it was quite a bit different than I had expected."

Yes, indeed.

- doc
 
eshrink-

Even the Manheim, PA high-line can be a "show."
 
1827 said:
In my opinion....

Barrett-Jackson is bringing what I call smart-stupid money: The buyer has to be smart enough to HAVE money, and stupid enough to spend it on a special car (or boat, or house, or hooker, or whatever). I optioned my incoming GT with the painted calipers ONLY. It's Tungsten with no stripes (and delete side stripes) to be a "sleeper." I had a '69 Z/28 with a '70 LS6 454/450 crate motor, painted all "gunmetal gray" (imagine that), no stripes, factory mufflers and resonators, steel Rally wheels with center caps and no trim rings. The cops left me alone until I was GONE....

So, I'll have a Stealth GT, no bling, no flash, but a great daily driver; and the most I can lose on the value is about $150,000.

Smart-Stupid....
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The smart guys at Barrett Jackson are Craig, Steve and some consignors...
 
I've been to the Barrett-Jackson 3 times now, bought 3 cars and sold 1 so I've pretty much experienced everything they have to offer. It's an incredible show with non stop entertainment in every direction. Get there when the gates open and plan to stay until at least 9 at night. You have plan on at least 3 to 4 days to even begin to see it all as well as watch any of the actual auction. I highly recommend it as a "must do" for all car guys, just try not to take the wife, she'll cost you a fortune! There's a lot of female oriented 'Bling" out there if you know what I mean. It grows every year and they are talking about having to move it to bigger digs just to contain it all.

Even if you really don't plan to bid, register as a bidder so you can get preferential treatment and seating. Also, get a preapproved line of credit because trust me, you WILL find something you can't resist and if it sells for less than you would have bid, you'll be sick for not being prepared. :biggrin
 
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