What if the GT was released during these economic crisis?

[HHGT]

While reading other forums about the ZR1, I could not believe the corvette crowd - mostly Z06 owners - are bashing their own!!! Understandably the would-be ZR1 guy does not want to pay for a markup, but in actuality they are being rude and obnoxious - a different mentality to say the least.

In any event, I started thinking about the dynamics of this market and how timing is everything and asked myself the question. If our GTs were released during these economic conditions, how would GT sales do? Keep in mind that some financed or leased.

What say you?

 

[B O N Y]

Exactly the same as F cars, Lambos and all other luxury brands are doing today. Did you catch the article in the WSJ yesterday on luxury car market.... MBZ off 40 pts?

 

[t32b]

Imho

Interesting question. Adding the caveat that I'm not an economist (though my son is), nor did I sleep at a Holiday Inn, it seems like examining the pre-owned pricing of FGT's is a potential proxy for the impact on the would-be-new FGT demographic. In that regard, seems like it's a modest one. Prices have halted their ascent, but they have not dropped.
Now, to be fair, this is not a perfect experiment because at the time of initial offering, it was not so markedly clear that production would be limited - which affects the pricing today.
But my take is that though they overlap, the Corvette crowd and the FGT crowds are not the same and that the latter is more likely to be affected by the current crisis.
BTW, I don't monitor the Corvette forums. What are they all saying?

 

[B O N Y]

Perhaps Shelby and Bernie are best qualified to answer.
Nice blog T32b

 

[Empty Pockets]

... nor did I sleep at a Holiday Inn... QUOTE]


:rofl:rofl:rofl :thumbsup:thumbsup

(Uh, incidently, that'd be a, "Holiday Inn EXPRESS", '32'! :lol)

 

[jaxgt]

I for one am curious to hear Bernie and Shelby's thoughts on how GT prices have been doing in the past 2 months.

Certainly seeing F430 prices drop some $30,000. Been offered used F430s at $140,000 with under 10,000 miles.

 

[Neilda]

I'm not selling - they're a rare breed.

 

[Chris A.]

Many more GT's for sale on ebay than in the past.....but still holding their value well

 

[shelbyelite]

Ok, I will try to put this into perspective. EVERYTHING has taken a hit from this economy. PERIOD. nothing is immune. Having said that, the GTs have taken a MUCH softer hit than like cars. For instance, a 3k mile white 05 FGT 1 year ago would have been a $165k retail car. It is now a $145k to $150k retail car. Approx $15k less (10% decline). A 3K mile 05 F430 coupe 1 year ago was a $195k to $200k retail car. It is now a $150k retail car. $50k less (25% decline). A 05 Lamborghini Gallardo 3k miles would have sold for $150k a year ago. It is now a $110k to $115k car. A $40k decline (26% decline)
Now, Delivery mile GTs seem to be holding strong. I have had 3 recently and currently have deposits on 2 of them at prices that are on PAR with last years prices. Also, low mile heritage cars seem to be holding strong and are a rare find.

To address the number of cars for sale, I disagree that there are many more for sale. At this time ebay shows 36 for sale which 5 of those are mustangs, replicas, or salvage cars which I dont include in the number of REAL GTs for sale as they are not considered by anyone shopping for a no stories REAL car. So that leaves us 31 cars for sale. I have watched the number of GTs for sale for the last 2 years and I would say on average there are usually 30 cars for sale. No point in trying to put a number on Autotrader, cars.com, or Dupont as many of the cars listed there have LOOOOONNNNGGG been sold but left up as advertisment to try and get leads.

Although the AVERAGE GT is only down 10%, you can actually up that a little as they were on a steady increase until this economy went south. My words of advice, dont sell your GT now.... This is the absolute WORST time. Its winter and we are in a recession. If anything, its a buyers market. Want to invest in something that WONT go away over night? Buy another GT. Mark my words, when we come out of this, the GTs will take the upward scale again.

 

[shelbyelite]

Another quick thought, I have read several statements where people were saying they were waiting for the GTs to come down in price and were gonna buy, but were mad as they went way back up and could not figure out why. What do you want to bet that those sideline watchers are STILL just that.... Watchers? They are down, but these guys are still not buying as they always have that mentality that they are gonna get lower. There are many people that think this way that HAVE the means to purchase at the current price. As already proven, the GT is a GREAT value at any price under $250k. Maybe even more. Out of 140+ GTs sold, I have only had 1 guy that did not like his car and he was really more of a ferrari guy at heart. Nothing wrong with the car, actually, he stated it was perfect. Just not his cup if tea. 1 out of 140 aint bad!

 

[SYCO GT]

If the Ford GT were released now, I would not been in the mindset to purchase one personally. It doesn't mean I wouldn't still desire the GT every bit as much as I do now, but I was a marginal buyer (due to economic and other considerations, not my massive degree of absolute love for the car) at the time I did buy, which was a time when all the stars were aligned and economy was solid.

I am thankful that the GT came out when it did, and that I made the decision to buy.

Although I definitely agree with Shelby, if you have the capital now, it is a great time to buy, whether fine cars, stocks, or real estate. Everything cycles.

And watchers will always be watchers. There are always a hundred excuses why not to do something. But, we're all do'ers here.

 

[Gulf GT]

Shelby, thank you for your professional viewpoint. It's very insightful.

 

[MAD IN NC]

Sysco +1

Shelby +1 :thumbsup

 

[dbk]

It's worth noting that if Ford were anywhere remotely close to the position they are in now, it would have never seen the light of day anyways.

As for overall prices, I still believe the GT would not be subject to the depth of market woes that the other marques have been. Simple reasoning, no precursor and no successor. There was a 360 Modena and there will be a 430 replacement. Ditto for Gallardo, Murcielago, etc you name it. The GT is and always be uniquely positioned as a truly limited production vehicle in a global market. Not that 4000 is a small number of units, but it's a known and finite quantity. It's not "4000, and then maybe another 4000 in a year." There are twice as many Gallardos. There are 360's, 430s, 599s, 575s, 612s, etc all too choose from if you're a Ferrari man. There is only one Ford GT.

It would have certainly declined, but I could never see a scenario in which you'd find an 05 Ford GT (average sales price? Maybe 160k?) at under $100k, which more than one 04 Gallardo has moved at.

 

[B O N Y]

DBK has nailed it ass-o-lutely 110% on the nose!

 

[jaxgt]

Thanks for the insight Shelby. I agree that now clearly does not look like a good time to be a seller. It certainly is a good time to have cash in hand as a buyer, and not HAVE to sell anything.

I guess the real issue for those considering selling, or those concerned about the economy's direction and trajectory, is now could still be a better time to sell than next year or the year after as some economists are projecting that the 'recession' might last several years more. If that is the case, now may be a better time to sell than next year, when prices could be even lower? I for one certainly have on crystal ball.

Ok, I will try to put this into perspective. EVERYTHING has taken a hit from this economy. PERIOD. nothing is immune. Having said that, the GTs have taken a MUCH softer hit than like cars. For instance, a 3k mile white 05 FGT 1 year ago would have been a $165k retail car. It is now a $145k to $150k retail car. Approx $15k less (10% decline). A 3K mile 05 F430 coupe 1 year ago was a $195k to $200k retail car. It is now a $150k retail car. $50k less (25% decline). A 05 Lamborghini Gallardo 3k miles would have sold for $150k a year ago. It is now a $110k to $115k car. A $40k decline (26% decline)
Now, Delivery mile GTs seem to be holding strong. I have had 3 recently and currently have deposits on 2 of them at prices that are on PAR with last years prices. Also, low mile heritage cars seem to be holding strong and are a rare find.

To address the number of cars for sale, I disagree that there are many more for sale. At this time ebay shows 36 for sale which 5 of those are mustangs, replicas, or salvage cars which I dont include in the number of REAL GTs for sale as they are not considered by anyone shopping for a no stories REAL car. So that leaves us 31 cars for sale. I have watched the number of GTs for sale for the last 2 years and I would say on average there are usually 30 cars for sale. No point in trying to put a number on Autotrader, cars.com, or Dupont as many of the cars listed there have LOOOOONNNNGGG been sold but left up as advertisment to try and get leads.

Although the AVERAGE GT is only down 10%, you can actually up that a little as they were on a steady increase until this economy went south. My words of advice, dont sell your GT now.... This is the absolute WORST time. Its winter and we are in a recession. If anything, its a buyers market. Want to invest in something that WONT go away over night? Buy another GT. Mark my words, when we come out of this, the GTs will take the upward scale again.

 

[FrankBarba]

I would still buy in today's market. As stated above the Ford GT would not be built in today's market. The economy has not hit me yet. As long as people need money i will be ok.

 

[soroush]

wonder how many gt owners are on the site, and wonder how many would buy another gt, if half of the production about 2000 cars belong to member of the site(who for the most part are like minded when it come to the car, in that most of us did not buy the car for investment and want to keep them for a long time) then we would practically controll the market on the gt's it would become economy proof, eventually if we could get most of the owners on the site, then we would have a monopoly I know I know I m just dreaming but I wasnt doing anything else today anyways.:cheers

 

[Spirit]

Not For Sale

I'm not selling - they're a rare breed.

:agree:

 

[SYCO GT]

wonder how many gt owners are on the site, and wonder how many would buy another gt, if half of the production about 2000 cars belong to member of the site(who for the most part are like minded when it come to the car, in that most of us did not buy the car for investment and want to keep them for a long time) then we would practically controll the market on the gt's it would become economy proof, eventually if we could get most of the owners on the site, then we would have a monopoly I know I know I m just dreaming but I wasnt doing anything else today anyways.:cheers

It'd be interesting to know, how many GT Owners on this site, and how many GT's do we collectively own (multiple GT owners will make this number bigger than forum members), and collectively control (Shelby and Bernie, and others), at this point. And how many GT's remain in the United States...And how many irreparably destroyed...

Just personal musings, as I do not have the effort/resources close at hand to look into such questions.