Bobby - i tend to agree with you on the economy as well but buying a GT should be about the fun of driving it not the investment but i'll tell you as an investment it has some of the best fundamentals out there
1. limited production, only 4k made total (that's before the wrecked ones or race versions). ferrari makes that many cars in 1 year and is still adding supply. Ferrari made over 11k 360s alone and now you have the 430s
2. The GT was never sold (ex a handful to canada and europe) into the world market, with the dollar the way it is these cars are damn cheap relative to other cars for buyers in europe or asia.
3. emerging market and gulf money, i have 2 friends in middle east who bought GTs. There's alot of money globally and people with money like unique cars. Everyone in london or middle east has a lambo, rolls or a F430 and can get one from a local dealer. Go to knightsbridge and the streets are lined with them. Not everyone can find a GT.
Its all these factors that make the GT a decent buy at these levels and why i wouldnt be surprised to see prices keep moving up...btw i never even mentioned price relative to performance vs ferrari or other high end exotics. Plus no one in their right mind "collects" a F430 in hopes the prices move up. i bet you alot of people are doing that with the GT. Cars in general are bad investments but some are better than others, look at the mid-90s 911 turbos. I'm not saying the GT is a double or triple but if you're like me and bearish being long this market, i'm happy to park my $ in a GT (looking forward to the silver no stripe Shelby!)
I agree with you regarding comparing a F360 or a F430 to a FGT. There is much more supply out there for the F cars. However, if you look at the Challenge Stradale that is a different story. If I recall correctly there were only 300 or so made for the world market (maybe 400, can't remember). Now I am sure everyone has an opinion on which is the better car, but Ferrari guys tend to be loyalists and will buy the CS even if the FGT performs better. My point being is the CS is selling for a far less $$ premium over original MSRP than the current "market prices" of the FGT--remember, there is only a 1/10th supply of CS's as compared to the FGT. Plus, I guarantee you will not find ANY dealers with more than two CS's in their inventory. Yet the CS sells for less of a premium.
As a F430 owner I knew full well I was going to get hammered on purchasing a new car without being a "friend" of a dealer. I am sure my car is worth less than what I payed. But, if you think about it, that also creates downward pressure on GT prices. Soon you will be able to buy a used '05/'06 F430 coupe for the high 190's/very low 200's (already there if they have a couple thousand miles). I am sure most on this forum will say they would never take an F430 over a comparably priced FGT, but I presume the contributers to this forum do not represent the general marketplace--if they did, I would not have been offered a new Heritage from my local dealer for $7k off MSRP just about one year ago today (silly me...I passed...instead waiting for my blue/white stripe car to materialize). IMHO, I believe the continued downward pressure on F430 prices will pressure FGT prices in the near future. Not to mention...I don't have exact figures, but if I recall corectly there are not nearly as many F430 coupes in the USA (due to Asian & Middle Eastern demand) as there were 360's at this point in production.
Another issue facing FGT prices is the number of multiple car owners. Sooner or later the individuals that own 2 or more FGT's are going to want to sell. That eventual supply will influence pricing. Now maybe everyone that owns a couple FGT's has a phone-digit salary...maybe not. For all we know quite a few multiple GT owners were mortgage brokers, builders, or realtors cashing in on the housing boom. Sooner or later, if the economy starts taking a beating (we haven't seen anything yet IMO), having $350k-$400k+ of FGT laying around starts looking like it needs to be monetized.
Lastly, based on my research, there are about three dealers that seem to always have a steady stream of GT's going through their inventory. From what I have observed, several cars have been acquired by these dealers via listings on this forum/ebay/Autotrader and then re-listed for sale in their inventory for several $$$ higher than previously offered by the original seller. This is a business model that likely will not survive if there is an increase of GT inventory available for sale. Meanwhile the three dealers that I am aware of enjoy "cornering" the market for a car that is currently in short supply.
Maybe I am completely wrong as to the direction of GT prices over the course of the next 6 months--guess that is what makes a market. If I am I guess I will be paying a lot more for my blue GT when I find it. Then again, I will probably at least even out since I am looking to move to the San Diego area and prices can't seem to drop fast enough for many sellers...guess they should have speculated on Ford GT's instead of Southern CA real estate!