90% chance it is simply a bad shock. But, it is prudent to also check a couple of other things.... First, we have seen many failed/leaking shocks and, generally speaking, they start much more slowly than the amount of oil shown in your pic. Just want you to double check that your axle bolts have been replaced and everything looks good around the axle. Second thing, check the balance of the tire on that side. An out of balance tire will definitely over-work and heat up that shock - so make sure to check the tire balance. Finally, while there are a few good shock choices (those Ohlins look sick as hell!), you can also go used. I think I still have some virtually new OEM take off shocks from another member here who asked me to sell them for him. PM me if interested, and I'll get a price.