collector car market / Hagerty

KennethClay · Aug 19, 2017

Seems like folks love to hate on the FGT values. See excerpt from longer article (URL provided below).

Concerning the current market, the Hagerty report added:

While the auction activity section of the rating had been kept strong by increases in the number of cars sold at auction so far this year, the trend hasn’t continued and auction activity decreased for the second consecutive month thanks to a 2% drop in the number of cars sold compared to last month.

Private sales activity also experienced its second consecutive decrease, again thanks to a small drop in the average sale price as well as a small drop in the number of vehicles selling for above their insured values.

The number of owners expressing the belief that the values of their vehicles are increasing continues to gradually decline, and this is true for the owners of both mainstream and high-end vehicles. The drop is particularly pronounced, however, for owners of previously hot models like the Ferrari 308 and Ford GT.

For the second month in a row, expert sentiment dropped more than any other section.

Full article can be found at http://wolfstreet.com/2017/08/15/what-the-hecks-going-on-with-vintage-automobiles/

I'm hoping to avoid the avalanche of "I don't care what they're worth--I bought mine to drive / I'll never sell it" comments. I just thought it was interesting, and for those who are looking to buy another FGT, or have friends that are considering joining us, it's an interesting read. So...enjoy!

Kenneth

GT Venum · Aug 19, 2017

I don't believe the avalanche is coming any time soon.

The car market goes up and down and if you watch it like the stock market it will drive you nuts. I should know as I purchase one and was afraid to put miles on it for several years because I was watching them go up in price. I now have a GT with a few miles on it and I drive as much as possible and it puts a smile on my face every time I hit the start button. These car were made to be driven IMO.

RM Auction Monterey CA - 2006 Blue with stripes and BBS wheels, 60 miles Sold at $379,500 All in...

ROCK · Aug 19, 2017

So many good cars out there is the main reason for prices leveling off, I think.
We have many new flavors of 911s, there's a bunch of nice pre-owened ones, same with 458s, McLarens, Lambos, NSX, Vipers (Especially ACRs), Jags, Corvettes, R8, etc., so there are options out there...I love the GT the most because its ageless beauty, something even the NFGT has a hard time matching.

2112 · Aug 19, 2017

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...classic-car-is-almost-never-a-good-investment

Don't shoot the messenger. :biggrin

djs · Aug 19, 2017

"RM Auction Monterey CA - 2006 Blue with stripes and BBS wheels, 60 miles Sold at $379,500 All in..."

That's gotta be near record dough for a non Heritage, no?

Kayvan · Aug 20, 2017

Its all about supply / demand.

In economics, there is a theory about "super economys"; usually describing CEO pay; pro-athletes or hedge funds and why small differences have huge results.

The anchor of the collector car market has been boomers; top buyers are alien-flavor of day: japan, china, ME, E-Eu...Mars next?

Their milestone birthdays coincide with 'trophy buys' (booms/busts) be it big promotion @ 45 ('85); retire at 65 ('05); estate sales at 75 ('15).

The supply of not living boomers is increasing; and the demand of living one's is contracting.

The early cohorts 1950s toys have tanked already; larger market panned whirpool build quality and Weber burning efficiency.

General Recreation consumption mirrors this; thats why Harleys and Golf have headed south for a while.

Will new collectors really pay up for 60s Hi-Po HP on leaf springs or 80/90s S-LowTech?

Sheehan summarizes it best....esp Daytona breaking even with '89 high!

https://www.ferraris-online.com/pages/article.php?reqart=SCM_201109_SS

2112 · Aug 20, 2017

^^^ spot on.

yumaverick · Aug 20, 2017

I'm gonna buy mine soon, I don't care if it drops it will prob come back as my some point.

AJB · Aug 20, 2017

Always keep in mind --
1. If you put off buying the Harley Motorcycle, waiting for that perfect price point , you may end up being too old to ride and balance it.
2. If you debate the purchase of the Ford GT or similar vehicle for too long, waiting for that perfect price point...you may end up too old to slide thru the door opening in a parking space or your garage ..
Time will march on ...

andy (ajb)

rsstopper · Aug 20, 2017

Kayvan said:
Its all about supply / demand.

In economics, there is a theory about "super economys"; usually describing CEO pay; pro-athletes or hedge funds and why small differences have huge results.

The anchor of the collector car market has been boomers; top buyers are alien-flavor of day: japan, china, ME, E-Eu...Mars next?

Their milestone birthdays coincide with 'trophy buys' (booms/busts) be it big promotion @ 45 ('85); retire at 65 ('05); estate sales at 75 ('15).

The supply of not living boomers is increasing; and the demand of living one's is contracting.

The early cohorts 1950s toys have tanked already; larger market panned whirpool build quality and Weber burning efficiency.

General Recreation consumption mirrors this; thats why Harleys and Golf have headed south for a while.

Will new collectors really pay up for 60s Hi-Po HP on leaf springs or 80/90s S-LowTech?

Sheehan summarizes it best....esp Daytona breaking even with '89 high!

https://www.ferraris-online.com/pages/article.php?reqart=SCM_201109_SS

Evidently there are a lot of dead boomers at Monterey! [emoji4]

Aston Martin Lemans winner sold for $20,050,000 last night!

Just watched a 1951 356 Porsche go for $925,000

A 60 Mile Black FGT sold last night for $365,000

Add 10% for the buyer's premium and sales tax.

No shortage of $$$ around here!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

twobjshelbys · Aug 20, 2017

rsstopper said:
Evidently there are a lot of dead boomers at Monterey! [emoji4]

Aston Martin Lemans winner sold for $20,050,000 last night!

Just watched a 1951 356 Porsche go for $925,000

A 60 Mile Black FGT sold last night for $365,000

Add 10% for the buyer's premium and sales tax.

No shortage of $$$ around here!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

CSX2588 was a reserve not met for for 950K. But the point is that these 289 cars were selling in the 400s 5 or so years ago. (It's odd because the car went from showing as sold in the top 10 list to reserve not met.)

I would say that based on Monterey the market is fairly healthy.

2112 · Aug 20, 2017

The market is healthy for the top of the market. Super rare classics. How many original slab side 289's are out there?

FGT's? Sure, a 60 mile untouched car brought the big price. How many of us have that kind of FGT?

In addition to boomers aging out, car culture is waning. Don't expect as many car enthusiasts in 20 years.

GT Venum · Aug 20, 2017

That is not the case here in the Midwest. The car shows today vs 10 years ago are completely different. There is a much larger group of cars (new and old) and a younger crowd. The younger crowd around here tend to have "muscle cars" vs "old cars". The shows that allow modern cars into their shows are growing, the show that put an age limit on their show seem to be about the same or shrinking.

At Monterey this year the "Exotics on Cannery Row" was by far the most attended show we went to.

I believe there are less 60 mile cars out there. The guys around here that are buying the low mile cars are driving them. They see it as they are getting a new car that someone stored for them for 10 years and not beat on for 10 years. A lot of our friends are switching from old cars to cars similar to the GT because they are tired of wrenching on them all the time to keep them on the road. They want the reliability to drive the car when ever they want and not worry what is going to go wrong with the car if they take it on a trip.

JMO

rsstopper · Aug 20, 2017

Monterey rumors... a Gulf Heritage FGT sold at Russo & Steel last night for $405,000 plus the hammer.

A red car, claimed to be #20 went to about $320 but was a no sale.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

2112 · Aug 20, 2017

GT Venum said:
That is not the case here in the Midwest. The car shows today vs 10 years ago are completely different. There is a much larger group of cars (new and old) and a younger crowd. The younger crowd around here tend to have "muscle cars" vs "old cars". The shows that allow modern cars into their shows are growing, the show that put an age limit on their show seem to be about the same or shrinking.

At Monterey this year the "Exotics on Cannery Row" was by far the most attended show we went to.

I believe there are less 60 mile cars out there. The guys around here that are buying the low mile cars are driving them. They see it as they are getting a new car that someone stored for them for 10 years and not beat on for 10 years. A lot of our friends are switching from old cars to cars similar to the GT because they are tired of wrenching on them all the time to keep them on the road. They want the reliability to drive the car when ever they want and not worry what is going to go wrong with the car if they take it on a trip.

JMO

Hey, I hope I am wrong.

Around my west coast metropolitan area, there is a war on cars, both politically and socially. There is palpable excitement for self driving electric eggs from all age groups. When I meet young people, which I do daily in my profession, 95% are, at best, ambivalent about automobiles. A third of those under the age of college graduation do not have a driver's license.

Every automotive publication I read acknowledges this.

If I go to a car show, I expect to be around nothing but car people. Their perspective is the same as mine.

Like I said, I hope I am wrong. I love cars and car culture.

KMCBOSS · Aug 20, 2017

2112 said:
Hey, I hope I am wrong.

Around my west coast metropolitan area, there is a war on cars, both politically and socially. There is palpable excitement for self driving electric eggs from all age groups. When I meet young people, which I do daily in my profession, 95% are, at best, ambivalent about automobiles. A third of those under the age of college graduation do not have a driver's license.

Every automotive publication I read acknowledges this.

If I go to a car show, I expect to be around nothing but car people. Their perspective is the same as mine.

Like I said, I hope I am wrong. I love cars and car culture.

You need to come to the Greenwood car show in Seattle (last Saturday in June) - 23 blocks long (Greenwood Ave) and thousands of people in the streets looking at cars. Ed

2112 · Aug 20, 2017

KMCBOSS said:
You need to come to the Greenwood car show in Seattle (last Saturday in June) - 23 blocks long (Greenwood Ave) and thousands of people in the streets looking at cars. Ed

I have been there. It is great, tho Seattle traffic is getting tougher all the time.

In my opinion, you can't use car shows & events as a barometer to how our society is changing as a whole.

I am looking at the big picture.

SBR · Aug 20, 2017

2112 said:
I have been there. It is great, tho Seattle traffic is getting tougher all the time.

In my opinion, you can't use car shows & events as a barometer to how our society is changing as a whole.

I am looking at the big picture.

Agreed, someone mentioned to me recently that in his view, car collecting was a 20th century hobby and that interest would diminish as the 21st century progresses. I hope that he's wrong about that. One things for certain and that is change is the only constant.

KennethClay · Aug 20, 2017

2112 said:
Around my west coast metropolitan area, there is a war on cars, both politically and socially. There is palpable excitement for self driving electric eggs from all age groups. When I meet young people, which I do daily in my profession, 95% are, at best, ambivalent about automobiles. A third of those under the age of college graduation do not have a driver's license.

I don't disagree with anything that you've said, but I do have one, thin reed of hope to throw out there. I think the root cause of a lot of the lack of interest in cars is fundamentally economic. Cars are as exciting as they've always been, maybe even more so these days! But, folks under 30 have basically seen the tech bubble burst, the Lehman collapse, a sequestration, and 8+ years of sub-3% GDP growth, all while being buried under mounting student debt burdens. With more and more young people living at home, they can also just use mom and dad's cars (or be driven around by them). I'm not giving up just yet!

Kenneth

2112 · Aug 20, 2017

This does not mean we car-guys cannot not enjoy our cars now, or that they will be valued at zero in 20+ years.

I just think we cannot expect to see a repeat of 2005-2008 in the car world. The exceptions will be for the rarefied cars that were produced in extremely low numbers or were preserved from day one as assemblyline correct.

For me and my very small collection, it will be a problem for my estate to handle so I have no dog in the fight.

collector car market / Hagerty

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