collector car market / Hagerty

matteuson · Sep 2, 2017

Kayvan said:
Thats the standard realtor response

There is no certainty in 'supply' of "great buyers" or "great cars"

95% of the Forbes 400 has changed since 1980; fast money's entry nor exit is rarely orderly, in any market

Rare finds and corrected resurrections of lost/tarted/botched/modded cars are being completed daily from Bugattis in lakes to Daytonas in barns.

http://www.cnn.com/style/article/ferrari-daytona-barn-find/index.html

If we added up every rare model sports car from F 250/275/365, Cobras, to Gullwings, Miuras to 2.7 RS, Hemi Cudas, to Shelbys we would not total 100,000 cars.

Yet, a wall of 100,000s of collector cars is coming to market ever other year for next several decades.

Transparency, visibility, liquidity, low switching and transactions costs stabilize or lower prices.

I'm kind of with you with a couple caveats:

- There are more people alive today than the sum total of all who have ever died. Population growth is exponential.
- Autonomous cars are a first world thing, it will be a century before the infrastructures of most major countries are ready for that, meanwhile, combustion engines.
- All this population growth will lead to newly minted millionaires and billionaires who will want the things that identify wealth and have intrinsic beauty. Beach homes, Van Goghs, Ferraris, etc.
- The spread of the Internet will only serve to solidify those images, stereotypes, etc.

So in the short term, tastes may vary a little, the hot new collectible could surpass cars, but in the long run people will always come back to quality and scarcity. Even Millennials. There are enough new collectors to absorb the inflow of Boomers collector cars but only the cars that identify wealth and have intrinsic beauty, not cars that identify a demographic or genre. All those Chevelle, Mustang, Corvette, MG, Triumphs, etc. are in big trouble from a value standpoint. I have muscle cars because I like them but they are an incredibly bad investment right now.

texas mongrel · Sep 2, 2017

Rode n an Uber autonomous vehicle last month, a fascinating experience. The tech in the car told me that every street has to be mapped between eight and ten times before the data is reliable enough to let the car drive itself. I think I'll be long dead before autonomous vehicles are the norm, there's an awful lot of streets in America!

2112 · Sep 2, 2017

matteuson said:
- There are more people alive today than the sum total of all who have ever died.

This piqued my interest. A quick search and I found several citations of the widely held estimation that 108 billion people have lived so far, leaving approximately 101 billion to have come and already gone.

Or am I misunderstanding your statement?

Either way, your comments sound logical.

http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2002/HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth.aspx

vyprgt2 · Sep 2, 2017

- There are more people alive today than the sum total of all who have ever died. Population growth is exponential.
- Autonomous cars are a first world thing, it will be a century before the infrastructures of most major countries are ready for that, meanwhile, combustion engines.
- All this population growth will lead to newly minted millionaires and billionaires who will want the things that identify wealth and have intrinsic beauty. Beach homes, Van Goghs, Ferraris, etc.
- The spread of the Internet will only serve to solidify those images, stereotypes, etc.

Not so sure about point 1, but the rest seem very valid.

I think it is possible that some muscle cars will hold value and go up in value long term. Shelbys, Mustangs, and Corvettes, in particular, are still being produced and capturing the imagination of young people. These future collectors will want to have examples of great old ones in their collections- Boss 429s, Boss 302s, 63 split windows, etc should be in demand for many decades, I predict a bright future for collectability of newer American sports cars like Vipers and FGTs as well.

Kayvan · Sep 2, 2017

"Apartment Find" new genre in finding classics

https://drivetribe.com/p/apartment-...BDg9RGa62V2UULq4wA?iid=egGnkRgxQwmpmQvKHVTLyg

Kayvan · Sep 2, 2017

matteuson said:
- All this population growth will lead to newly minted millionaires and billionaires who will want the things that identify wealth and have intrinsic beauty. Beach homes, Van Goghs, Ferraris, etc.

This is the biggest myth being pedalled by Jet, Mansion, Yacht, Art, Classic car salesman.

There is this notion that there were essentially no "rich people" in the former USSR, PR of China, third world liberated dictatorships and the vast mass of people were on donkeys or in line for gruel.

Not True: number of accounts in Zurich has been constant for a century.

Th elite of the USSR/PRC populating the top ranks of the Politburo, running the largest state factories, oil company, and the banks made today's oligarchs look like peasants. Dachas and Guest Houses w/wall to wall Isfahan rugs and Amber walls make todays Oligarch McMansions look ghetto. German Banks had more in Loans to the USSR than all of the EU combined.

These places were rolling large while the UK/EU/US elite were still in rust bucket Vaux Marinas, Escorts and Falcons.

Your not going to rule billions with some gold braid/ribbons; loot/booty was had and widely distributed at the top,

Mao alone owned 25 Mercedes 600 Limos; Ukraines flunky ruler had 50 classics found in 2014; Saddam's Son alone had 200 collector cars; the Shah of Iran had 100s; every dictator from Idi Amin to Baby Doc had fleets.

I personally know of 10+ Gullwings in Tehran; Beirut has dozens; and Gulf has more.

The rich play musical chairs on many a Titanic.

SBR · Sep 2, 2017

I was at a local show called Super car Saturday which is a monthly event in the warmer months in the Chicagoland area. There must have been over 500 cars there, from new super cars to 1930s Fords. Most of the owners were younger than I am (53) and there was a sea of people that attended. Tastes will change but timeless classics should be OK. Bottom line is buy what you like!

SBR · Sep 2, 2017

Shelbys, Mustangs, and Corvettes, in particular, are still being produced and capturing the imagination of young people. These future collectors will want to have examples of great old ones in their collections- Boss 429s, Boss 302s, 63 split windows, etc should be in demand for many decades, I predict a bright future for collectability of newer American sports cars like Vipers and FGTs as well.[/QUOTE]

I think that's a great point. There were tons of newer Corvettes, Mustangs etc at the show that I attended today with some classics there too and lot's of people were admiring them.

vyprgt2 · Sep 3, 2017

<<< notion that ... the vast mass of people were on donkeys or in line for gruel>>>>

That cracked me up!

DXB.GT · Sep 3, 2017

I don't care any more about the market's ups and downs...

Just 2 weeks back l bought my 2006 FORD GT centennial white/ blue striped 1887 miles for 285k $, in my country (Dubai, UAE).

I wanted to buy a FORD GT since 2008, but I didn't have enough money to buy it and I wasn't ready for that. In 2012 I started monitoring the prices hopping that it will go down one day and I will find the good deal, at that time you can find the best GT for 200k or even less, I decided to wait but an fortunately the price is going up and up and I got frustrated [emoji25].

1 month back I find this car in a dealer in my country ( I think it's the best deal I can get at this time) I decided to buy the car, I know that its a big amount of money but I don't care any more.

Now I have the car in my garage, enjoying driving it every day not caring about the mileage (added 800 miles) nor the value $ .... just I want to enjoy the moment [emoji7]. Trying to compensate the 9 years of waiting 2008 to 2017.

Not regretting at all........ not caring about the reports

Enjoooy guys [emoji1417]

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Sinovac · Sep 3, 2017

DXB.GT said:
I don't care any more about the market's ups and downs...

Just 2 weeks back l bought my 2006 FORD GT centennial white/ blue striped 1887 miles for 285k $, in my country (Dubai, UAE).

Congratulations. You have the right attitude. The day my passion for cars turns into something akin to commodities trading is the day I'm out of the hobby. If the values of many of these cars decrease dramatically, more real enthusiasts can afford and enjoy them.

Special K · Sep 3, 2017

Can still tell my wife it's the best place to park our money?

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Sinovac · Sep 3, 2017

Special K said:
Can still tell my wife it's the best place to park our money?

Sure. Lies like that are perfectly acceptable.

dbk · Sep 3, 2017

Good man!

KennethClay · Sep 3, 2017

Special K said:
Can still tell my wife it's the best place to park our money?

Wealthy people typically have a significant chunk of their wealth in "alternative assets", with about 10% or so going into automobiles. So, it's a legit place to park your money!

Still, it seems indulgent, probably because it's so much fun to have great cars!

nautoncall · Sep 3, 2017

DXB.GT said:
I don't care any more about the market's ups and downs...

Just 2 weeks back l bought my 2006 FORD GT centennial white/ blue striped 1887 miles for 285k $, in my country (Dubai, UAE).

I wanted to buy a FORD GT since 2008, but I didn't have enough money to buy it and I wasn't ready for that. In 2012 I started monitoring the prices hopping that it will go down one day and I will find the good deal, at that time you can find the best GT for 200k or even less, I decided to wait but an fortunately the price is going up and up and I got frustrated [emoji25].

1 month back I find this car in a dealer in my country ( I think it's the best deal I can get at this time) I decided to buy the car, I know that its a big amount of money but I don't care any more.

Now I have the car in my garage, enjoying driving it every day not caring about the mileage (added 800 miles) nor the value $ .... just I want to enjoy the moment [emoji7]. Trying to compensate the 9 years of waiting 2008 to 2017.

Not regretting at all........ not caring about the reports

Enjoooy guys [emoji1417]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Congratulations!! She's a beaut!

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DXB.GT · Sep 3, 2017

Sinovac said:
Congratulations. You have the right attitude. The day my passion for cars turns into something akin to commodities trading is the day I'm out of the hobby. If the values of many of these cars decrease dramatically, more real enthusiasts can afford and enjoy them.

Thanks Sinovac I agree

nautoncall said:
Congratulations!! She's a beaut!

Thanks nautoncall, I'm in love with her

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2112 · Sep 3, 2017

Congratulations DXB.GT :cheers

If you're keeping it, doesn't matter what you paid.

Kayvan · Sep 7, 2017

Auoweek / Hagerty 2017 Monterey

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-videos/articles/2017/08/22/2017-monterey-classic-car-auctions

http://autoweek.com/article/car-lif...-years-328-million-monterey-car-week-auctions

SBR · Sep 8, 2017

The article by Colin Comer is spot on. There are simply too many auctions going on at the same time in Monterey. Back in the early 2000s, the auction houses helped collector car prices but now that they have flooded the marketplace, it will have a negative impact on prices moving forward.

collector car market / Hagerty

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