Electric cars and the impact on the environment


PeteK

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Apr 18, 2014
2,267
Kalama, Free part of WA State
Chip, I hear ya and agree with ya, which makes me very pessimistic indeed. Unfortunately, your maxim, “Reality is completely indifferent to hopes, wishes, and desires,” is overwhelmed by another maxim I'll paraphrase from investing,

"Policies can remain irrational longer than you can remain sane."
 

Awsum GT

GT Owner '18
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Sep 17, 2005
3,985
Carmel & Cntrl Ca
Deleted
 
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Brombear

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
May 16, 2013
1,396
Frankfurt Area, Germany
In german we have a saying „then someone came by who didn’t know what all experts agreed to and simply did it.“

If there is one thing for sure regarding the future then it is uncertain ...
 

ChipBeck

GT Owner
Staff member
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Feb 13, 2006
5,769
Scottsdale, Arizona
If you always do what you have always done, you will always get what you have always gotten.

We are in complete agreement here. What we always did in the distant past was let the marketplace innovate and compete. Energy was cheap, abundant, and always available. But that was no good so now we let government agency’s force us to buy “green energy” that is 4 to 10 times as expensive. But hey, if we drive the cost of conventional energy high enough by restricting the building of new fossil fuel power plants then green energy is competative! Bingo!!!! But since it still probably isn’t we will “mandate” that power companies generate green energy no matter how expensive it is. Problem solved. Forget that market place crap. Who needs Adam Smith’s invisible hand when we have the iron fist of government. Now Californian’s can enjoy electricity rates 300% higher than in Arizona!! Rock on!!

Creative destruction, rapid innovation, and constant evolution & improvement all die in the maw of government control. Cheers.

Chip
 
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Awsum GT

GT Owner '18
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Sep 17, 2005
3,985
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fjpikul

GT Owner
Mark IV Lifetime
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Jan 4, 2006
11,475
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He visited California.
 

Kayvan

GT Owner
Jul 13, 2006
4,782
 

Apollo

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Aug 5, 2006
2,499
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Maybe I am a bit too skeptical, but... The fastest drag race electric car with specialized equipment is mid 7s, very few are even in the 8s. I think the fastest a specialized electric car has achieved in top speed under it's own batteries is just over 200mph,(Not counting ultra exotic land speed record cars)...
...So Elon is going to deliver a 2+ ton street legal mass produced car, (sarcasm) that can deliver near record speeds for an electric drag car, and will also have enough sustained battery power to go 50mph faster than the record now held by a specially prepared electric car. I am not an expert, but I doubt the math works out for these claims. :rolleyes
 
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2112

Blue/white 06'
Mark II Lifetime
Don't forget the 630 mile range.
 

ChipBeck

GT Owner
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Feb 13, 2006
5,769
Scottsdale, Arizona
Gentlemen,

Here’s my prediction. Pure EV’s will peak at about 10% of the total fleet 20 years from now. As new car engines continue to shrink electric motors will be added to provide acceptable acceleration. Some new cars will mimic the diesel/electric locomotive engine and have very small gasoline engines that run at a constant speed (most efficient rpm) to charge much smaller battery packs than those required by pure EV’s. These cars will be lighter, have phenomenal range, able to operate in electric only mode for short trips, won’t overload the grid, and can be refueled in minutes at a conventional gas station. Ford, GM, and European makers will sell them for far less than Tesla’s expensive EV only offerings assuming Tesla survives that long. The Tesla semi truck is not the answer. I believe that diesel/electric will be for big heavy long haul trucks. Cheers.

Chip
 
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2112

Blue/white 06'
Mark II Lifetime
How we didn't do this first?

Dear FerrariChat user,

We’re excited to announce a new online community dedicated to Electric Vehicles. Whether we all like it or not, the future is here. Not only do electric cars offer mind blowing acceleration, but also performance advantages in braking, low center of gravity, perfect balance, and no transmission gearing. We’ll see if the “dinosaur” traditional manufacturers, and even Ferrari, try to start competing in the market. Right now Tesla dominates with the mass produced Model S that has 2.2 seconds 0-60 and 315 mile range. Jennie has a Model S as daily driver and I have been so impressed by its performance although not even a “greenie”. I love the sounds my Italians make, but at minimum it's interesting that the performance of $2 million dollar hypercars is being challenged by cars less than 1/10th the cost. It is going to be an interesting year, 5 years, and 10 years with the development of electric vehicles. Please join us at http://www.insideevsforum.com to share the enthusiasm or argue against the demise of Internal Combustion Engines. :)


Thanks,
Rob Lay
Founder
FerrariChat.com
 

PeteK

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Apr 18, 2014
2,267
Kalama, Free part of WA State
Gentlemen,

Here’s my prediction. Pure EV’s will peak at about 10% of the total fleet 20 years from now. As new car engines continue to shrink electric motors will be added to provide acceptable acceleration. Some new cars will mimic the diesel/electric locomotive engine and have very small gasoline engines that run at a constant speed (most efficient rpm) to charge much smaller battery packs than those required by pure EV’s. These cars will be lighter, have phenomenal range, able to operate in electric only mode for short trips, won’t overload the grid, and can be refueled in minutes at a conventional gas station. Ford, GM, and European makers will sell them for far less than Tesla’s expensive EV only offerings assuming Tesla survives that long. The Tesla semi truck is not the answer. I believe that diesel/electric will be for big heavy long haul trucks. Cheers.

Chip

We already have plug-in hybrids, e.g., the Chevy Volt. They haven't been popular. I don't know why, because it's a configuration that makes a lot more sense than the other hybrids that have virtually no electric-only range. But for some reason, people want to buy those.

I'll differ on long-haul trucks going to diesel-electric drive. Diesel-electric drive was incorporated into locomotives because of a different problem--getting a really heavy, long, springy train started in motion. A clutch just wasn't practical in that application, but electric drive was. Semi-trucks use clutches and they work just fine for that application, so they will continue to use that well-developed and proven design. The big low-RPM turbo engines with 15+ gears to select from have been pretty well optimized at this point. Some big vehicles even use auto trannies. Unless the Govt decides to kill off diesel engines for political reasons, the mechanical drive diesel tractor-trailer combo will be with us a long time.
 

ChipBeck

GT Owner
Staff member
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Feb 13, 2006
5,769
Scottsdale, Arizona
We already have plug-in hybrids, e.g., the Chevy Volt. They haven't been popular. I don't know why, because it's a configuration that makes a lot more sense than the other hybrids that have virtually no electric-only range. But for some reason, people want to buy those.

I'll differ on long-haul trucks going to diesel-electric drive. Diesel-electric drive was incorporated into locomotives because of a different problem--getting a really heavy, long, springy train started in motion. A clutch just wasn't practical in that application, but electric drive was. Semi-trucks use clutches and they work just fine for that application, so they will continue to use that well-developed and proven design. The big low-RPM turbo engines with 15+ gears to select from have been pretty well optimized at this point. Some big vehicles even use auto trannies. Unless the Govt decides to kill off diesel engines for political reasons, the mechanical drive diesel tractor-trailer combo will be with us a long time.

I'm not talking about a plug in hybrid like the Volt that still powers the wheels with the gasoline engine. I'm talking about an engine that strictly charges the batteries.

Chip
 

Kayvan

GT Owner
Jul 13, 2006
4,782
Tesla’s Model 3 Is Now America’s Best-Selling Electric Car:

9766/qtr
2020/7dys

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...3-is-the-best-selling-electric-car-in-the-u-s
 

dbk

The Favor Factory™
Staff member
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Jul 30, 2005
15,187
Metro Detroit
The production numbers are not remotely credible. It represents a totally unsustainable ramp pounded out over 7 days to grossly inflate production rates. I bet there are some hilarious jigsaw puzzles in that final weeks "2000" cars produced just to get to a number that wouldn't crumble the thing.

But I understand the impetus for bullshitting about it. Credit downgrades, negative outlooks, fleeing executives, short-term borrowing costs skyrocketing...

05onfire1_xp-master768-v2.jpg
 

PeteK

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Apr 18, 2014
2,267
Kalama, Free part of WA State
A friend of mine from the Mercedes Email List leased a Model S, P90D for almost three years. He had a number of problems with it, and his experience with Tesla as a car company and customer satisfaction says a lot about how long Tesla will continue to survive. I'm thinking about the end of this year Tesla will be in deep trouble, not only financially, but also for their reputation for customer service. If it looks like Tesla will have difficulty delivering cars, and fixing the ones already out there, people will be a lot more reluctant to plop down $100K or so when they have doubts whether their car will be "sustainable." And then the death spiral will follow. Anyway, we'll see soon enough. And we shouldn't yet count out Musk's ability to make more investors believe in his company and pump more money into it, or persuading one of the major car companies to take it over and try to make it into a real car company.

(reprinted with permission):

In one of their movies, Chico Marx had a great line that he said to Groucho
to the effect of: "Hey Boss, whatcha going to believe? What I tell you,
or what you see with your own two eyes?"

What I've related to this List is what I've personally lived through in
owning a Tesla for a couple of years, versus what Elon tells you. It
really boils down to the simple fact that they just don't know how to run a
car company. If you forget all the fluff, it's hard to ignore that:

-- their financials are a mess as they burn through incredible amounts of
cash every quarter

-- they lose money on every car they sell, and in a market where they have
no real competition (yet)

-- the falcon wing doors and other zoomy features of the Model X are cool,
but by Elon's own admission, they made the car too complicated

-- the buzz around how highly automated the Model 3 production line was
going to be had everyone in awe, but by Elon's recent admission, they made
it too complicated and it's now causing delays. They had to shut it down
last week for 4 or 5 days to make changes.

-- Elon's statement at the Model 3 highly promoted gala intro event in late
July that they'd be producing 5,000 cars a week by the end of December got
pushed back to end of Q1, and then again to the end of Q2

-- The replacement bumper cover took 8 weeks to arrive, and then it was the wrong part, and had to be reordered.

-- The replacement for the defective drivers seat for my car that was
ordered in the first week of January had yet to appear when I turned the
car in at the end of March, 3 months later. Whenever I inquired as to it's
status I was told it was "back ordered". My lease didn't end until the end
of September but I was approaching my 45,000 mile lease limit after which
I'd have to pay a 25 cent/mile penalty. And, the warranty ends at 50,000
miles and I did not want to own the car outside of warranty, albeit there's
a good chance that the replacement drivers seat may have shown up by then.

-- I tend to take care of all my cars, but there's nothing that I can do as the driver to cause the main battery to fail, wiring harnesses fail, door handles fail, etc., etc., etc. And all cars have failures, but MB would have solved those problems in a few days versus Tesla taking months to deliver the parts.

Facts are tricky things in that they are, well, they are facts. Hard to
spin them. Flame throwers, putting a roadster into space, boring a tunnel
etc., are all zoomy promotional events. Then there are the facts.
 

Kayvan

GT Owner
Jul 13, 2006
4,782
In 2008 two of the largest “real car company” went bankrupt

Tesla did not; in fact it was sold out of all cars it made.

This thread will be a hilarious “fact” in 2028.
 

FENZO

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Jul 7, 2008
1,518
Lafayette, CO
Was a good thing Henry Ford didn't face such a litany of keyboard assassins across forums/social media. Maybe he would have given up after his initial series of failures. Then where would we be?


“Failure is simply the opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently.” – Henry A. Ford
 

KennethClay

GT Owner
Mark IV Lifetime
Oct 15, 2012
860
New York
Was a good thing Henry Ford didn't face such a litany of keyboard assassins across forums/social media.

True. But Henry Ford actually MADE cars that people wanted to buy, and did so without massive subsidies. When Hong Kong cut the subsidies to EV buyers in 2017, sales the next month went to....zero.

Tesla may yet get it together, but they'll have to have supportive investors, lenders, etc., and then hope that, once the infrastructure is built out, MB, Porsche, and others don't just kill them. The major car companies have the supply chain, logistics, and experience with luxury buyers that will be tough to beat.

It'll be interesting...
 

PeteK

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Apr 18, 2014
2,267
Kalama, Free part of WA State
Yes, it will be interesting. Kayvan, are you fully invested in Tesla? Why not? :lol